seabreeze storms

FROM NWS......




000
FXUS62 KTBW 040741
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY - RUSKIN FL
340 AM EDT FRI MAY 4 2007

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SUNDAY)...WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WHICH
HELPED DEVELOP THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING ANOTHER ONE MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST LATER TODAY. COMBINATION OF THIS IMPULSE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZES WILL LEAD TO MORE ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS WITH BEST CHANCE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE AREA NORTHWARD INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE EAST COAST OF
THE U.S. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED ON SATURDAY BUT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZES TO
CAUSE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER INLAND
AREAS. ON SUNDAY A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH WILL
PUSH SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE AREA BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
LEADING TO SOME MUCH NEEDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND SATURDAY
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE GULF COAST TO LOWER 90S INLAND.
FOR SUNDAY DAYTIME HIGHS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS WARM THANKS TO THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS...BUT STILL IN THE 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL
MOSTLY INTO THE 60S...EXCEPT AROUND 70 ALONG TAMPA BAY AND THE GULF
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END
TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT WITH LOTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND
WILL LEAVE 20 PERCENT POPS IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BREEZY ON MONDAY WITH STILL QUITE A FEW CLOUDS AROUND AS
STRATOCUMULUS MOVES ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE ATLANTIC. SOME SLOW
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.

THE LARGE HIGH RESPONSIBLE FOR DRIVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION WILL FINALLY SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON TUESDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY...AND BRING
EVEN DRIER AIR TO THE REGION.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF ON THE COOL SIDE MONDAY WITH LOTS
OF CLOUDS AROUND AND GUSTY WINDS. THEN WE`LL SEE A SLOW WARMING
TREND WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE AVERAGE...NEAR 90 DEGREES
IN THE INTERIOR BY FRIDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DEPEND A LOT ON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS...BUT WE
SHOULD SEE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ALONG
ABOUT WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MID 50S NORTH TO
AROUND 60 INTERIOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH. OTHERWISE...LOWS WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

$$

.AVIATION...WE ARE SEEING SMOKE AND FOG ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING...
ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT VERY WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME. WE COULD SEE MVFR
VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE FRIDAY...THEN PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR FMY/RSW IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING WITH THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN INCREASE BEHIND THE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY REACHING EXERCISE CAUTION
LEVELS...POSSIBLY ADVISORY CRITERIA OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO
THE 30S...POSSIBLY UPPER 20S OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT ONLY THE NORTHERN INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST WILL ACHIEVE DURATIONS LONG ENOUGH FOR
A RED FLAG WARNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH AREAS FURTHER SOUTH AND WILL
HEADLINE WITH 1 TO 3 HOURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NO FIRE WEATHER WATCHES/RED FLAG
WARNINGS ANTICIPATED.

Yesterday I was wishing I had my camera as I watched the seabreeze storms produce amazing tops. Wishing I could leave work and join Jeff Gammons. My time will come.

I had A dream last night i was chasing a tornado( I have those dreams quite a bit)
Anyway My dream turned into a nightmare when I relized I didnt have my camera!!!
Talk about dts......My daughter was gonna take my camera for the weekend, I just saw it sitting on the couch so she forgot it....Bummer for her..cool for me..I don't wanna take a chance on missing out on anything..
I hope everyone has a great weekend!!!!!