Tropical Storm Nana/98L

Nana remains in an environment of strong westerly shear and the
low-cloud center is displaced well to the west of the main blob of
deep convection. An ascat pass from 2332 UTC measured 30-35 kt
winds over the northeast quadrant of the cyclone. Given the
disorganization of the system it is possible that...since the time
of that overpass...Nana may have weakened below tropical storm
strength. However...because of the uncertainties...I will maintain
the intensity at 35 kt for now. The global model's 200 mb wind
forecasts shows 25-30 kt westerly winds over the area for the next
36 hours or so...so we do not expect the shear to lessen
significantly in the near future. Nana will likely weaken and
degenerate into a remnant low within 24 hours.

Initial motion is estimated to be 285/6. Nana or its remnant should
continue this general motion while situated to south-southwest of a
low- to mid-level high pressure ridge over the eastern Atlantic.
The official forecast track...like the previous one...is on the
south side of the guidance envelope and leans toward the shallow
BAM track...albeit not quite as fast as that guidance.
98L

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 275
MILES SOUTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY WINDS AND A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAINS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND A
PORTION OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.