HURRICANE IKE

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

THE EYE OF IKE HAS LOST A LITTLE OF ITS DEFINITION...AND CLOUD TOPS
OF THE EYEWALL HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE COME
DOWN SLIGHTLY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 110 KT.
MICROWAVE IMAGERY JUST RECEIVED FROM THE AMSR-E DOES NOT REVEAL ANY
SIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION OF THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE...NOR DOES IT
DEPICT CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS...SO RAPID WEAKENING DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ABOUT TO OCCUR. THAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE
NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL...AND GIVEN THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME WEAKENING IN THE SHORT TERM.
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO LESSEN BEYOND 24 HOURS...AS IKE
REMAINS OVER WATERS NEAR 29 CELSIUS...SO RESTRENGTHENING IS THEN
FORECAST. THE HWRF FORECASTS IKE TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT DAYS
3-5...BUT THE GFDL DOES NOT SINCE ITS TRACK GOES OVER CUBA.
MEANWHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM FORECAST A WEAKER HURRICANE...ALTHOUGH
THE LGEM PREDICTION APPEARS MORE REALISTIC SINCE IT DOES A BETTER
JOB OF TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE EVENTUAL LESSENING OF THE SHEAR.
SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS OVER WATER THROUGH 96
HOURS...A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND LGEM SEEMS TO BE REASONABLE...AND
IKE IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LONGER RANGES. THE ONLY
REASON FOR THE WEAKENING AT THE END IS THAT THE FIVE-DAY POINT IS
OVER LAND...WHICH IS NOT A CERTAINTY.

THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE HAS SETTLED IN DIRECTLY NORTH OF IKE...AS THE
HIGH-LATITUDE TROUGH DEPARTS ATLANTIC CANADA...AND THE HURRICANE IS
NOW HEADED DUE WESTWARD OR 270/13. NEXT TO DEPART THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC SCENE WILL BE HANNA...AND ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS SAY THAT IN
ITS PLACE THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD TO FLORIDA IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. A KEY UNKNOWN FOR THE 3-5 DAY FORECAST IS HOW
STRONG THAT RIDGE WILL BE AND HOW LONG IT WILL REMAIN INTACT. IN
GENERAL DURING THE LAST DAY OR TWO THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
TOWARD THE RIDGE STAYING IN PLACE LONGER...RESULTING IN TRACKS
MAINTAINING THE GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION LONGER AND DELAYING ANY
POTENTIAL TURN TO THE NORTH. THAT TREND HAS CONTINUED SOMEWHAT ON
THIS CYCLE...BUT THE CONSENSUS HAS ONLY SHIFTED WEST SLIGHTLY AT
DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALMOST IDENTICAL
TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72 HOURS...IS JUST NUDGED TOWARD THE
CONSENSUS BEYOND THAT TIME...AND GIVES THE MOST WEIGHT TO THE GFS
AND HWRF. IT CANNOT BE SAID ENOUGH THAT FIVE-DAY TRACK FORECASTS
CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS...AND COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT THE
MODEL SPREAD IS STILL NOTABLE BEYOND 72 HOURS...ONE SHOULD NOT
FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK.

HURRICANE IKE

HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM AST WED SEP 03 2008

...IKE BECOMES THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC SEASON...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.7 WEST OR ABOUT 670 MILES...1080
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/HR....AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...TAKING IKE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE WHAT IF ANY LAND AREAS MIGHT EVENTUALLY BE
AFFECTED BY IKE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...21.6 N...52.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

TROPICAL STORM HANNA

Photo from sept 1st. Source -Nasa
TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
500 PM AST WED SEP 03 2008

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND REPLACED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN HISPANIOLA FROM PORT
AU PRINCE HAITI NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF HANNA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES...160 KM...NORTHEAST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND AND ABOUT 60 MILES
... 95 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HANNA
SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH OR JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND HANNA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...
WITH MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND EASTERN CUBA. ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
BY FRIDAY MORNING.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.

SWELLS FROM HANNA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE ADJACENT WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...21.9 N...71.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

HURRICANE GUSTAV

We got a hurricane in the house!! GUSTAV A LITTLE STRONGER...NEARING THE SOUTH COAST OF HAITI...
And 2 more interest out there that look good for the ripening. I am gonna have to agree this 2008 storm season has been off the wall. Gustav looks like its gonna go major, once it hits those gulf waters its any one game. Will it be a Florida storm, i don't know.:AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...
125 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 265 MILES
...425 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK THIS HURRICANE SHOULD MOVE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN HAITI LATER TODAY AND NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
EASTERN CUBA ON WEDNESDAY.

Ridging is expected to develop over Florida helping to turn Gustav more westerly in the longer-term, but the strength of this ridging and timing of the next trough along the northern Gulf coast is all up in the air-"From Jeff Gammons Blog"
Where ever he lands its not gonna be good folks,not at all. I was hoping to some Fay chasing while she was here but sometimes it sucks being married is all I got to say on that subject. So for me this will be another arm chair chase. As long as i get a signal i am good to go.
Jess

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING EAST OF BARAHONA TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EAST OF BARAHONA TO SANTO
DOMINGO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST OR ABOUT 180
MILES...290 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL BE MOVING
NEAR OR OVER HAITI ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
GUSTAV COULD BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO MOVING OVER LAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 25
INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE INTENSE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

Posted by: JeffMasters, 4:12 PM EDT on August 25, 2008
Tropical Storm Gustav intensified rapidly from a mere disturbance to a strong tropical storm in just a few short hours. At 1:33 pm EDT, an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a surface pressure of 996 mb at 15.8N, 70.5W, at the center of a closed circulation. Top winds at the aircraft's flight level of 2200 feet were hurricane force, 74 mph. Top winds measured at the surface by the SFMR instrument were 60 mph, on the southeast side of the storm. Large regions of winds in excess of tropical storm force (39 mph) were measured on both the northwest and southeast sides of the storm. Visible satellite loops show a steadily increase in the intensity and areal coverage of Gustav's heavy thunderstorm activity. A cloud-free center (not a true eye) formed late this morning, and Gustav is now starting to build an eyewall of heavy thunderstorms around the cloud-free center. Gustav has an impressive spiral band to its north, and this band has now moved ashore over the southern Dominican Republic, as seen on Punta Cana radar. These rains have also spread to Puerto Rico, as seen on Puerto Rico radar. The Hurricane Hunters have left Gustav, and a new aircraft is scheduled to be in the storm by 2 am Tuesday.




The track forecast for Gustav
The models have come into better agreement on the future track of Gustav. Gustav is likely to continue northwest across the southwestern peninsula of Haiti, and is being drawn this direction by a trough of low pressure currently exiting the U.S. East Coast. By Wednesday, the trough is expected to move eastward, leaving Gustav in a region of weak steering currents. The storm will slow down, and is then expected to turn westward, or even slightly south of west, as a ridge of high pressure builds in, forcing Gustav to move parallel to Cuba. The outlier model is the NOGAPS, which takes Gustav northward through the Bahamas and parallel to the U.S. East Coast. For now, I am discounting this solution. The NOGAPS was also the outlier model during Fay, and consistently made the worst track forecasts among the major models. I expect Gustav to track over or just south of Cuba. As Gustav nears western Cuba on Friday, another trough of low pressure moving across the central U.S. may be strong enough to turn Gustav northward, into the Gulf of Mexico. This is the solution given by the GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF models, which foresee a Category 1 or 2 hurricane just west of Key West, Florida, on Saturday. The GFS, UKMET, and Canadian models disagree, and forecast that the new trough of low pressure will not be strong enough to turn Gustav to the north. Instead, these models predict that Gustav will continue west into the Yucatan Peninsula.

Which set of models do you trust? Both solutions are plausible. I plotted up the errors for some of the computer model forecasts made during Fay. While Fay was over Hispaniola and Cuba, the GFDL model made the best track forecasts, among the four main models used by NHC: GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, and UKMET. This makes me more inclined to trust the GFDL model's forecasts for Gustav, since Fay and Gustav are similar storms.

The intensity forecast for Gustav
As long as Gustav is over water, it will intensify. Gustav is currently under low wind shear (5 knots) . This shear is expected to remain in the low range (0-10 knots) through Tuesday morning, then increase to a moderate 15 knots by Tuesday afternoon, as Gustav makes its closest approach to the trough of low pressure to its north. Gustav is over the highest heat content waters in the Atlantic. Given these two factors, intensification to a strong Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds is possible before the storm makes landfall in Haiti. Expect the high mountains of Hispaniola to take a significant toll on Gustav. Recall in 2006 that Hurricane Ernesto hit the southwest tip of Haiti as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Haiti's mountains knocked Ernesto down to a tropical storm with 50 mph winds, which decreased further to 40 mph when the storm crossed over into Cuba. Expect at least a 25 mph decrease in Gustav's winds by Wednesday, after it encounters Haiti. Further weakening is likely if the storm passes close to or over Cuba. By Wednesday, wind shear is expected to fall to the low range (0-10 knots) again, as the trough of low pressure to its north moves off to the east. Once Gustav reaches central or western Cuba, it will be underneath an upper-level anticyclone. These upper atmosphere high pressure systems can greatly intensify a tropical storm, since the clockwise flow of air at the top of the storm acts to efficiently vent away air pulled aloft by the storm's heavy thunderstorms. With high oceanic heat content also present in the waters off western Cuba, the potential for rapid intensification exists should the center stay more than 50 miles from the Cuban coast.

Hurricane Season

I copyed this from a comment in Jeff Masters blog. It cracked me up so i thought i would share I think u will get a kick out of this.

Hurricane Season

We're about to enter the peak of the hurricane season. Any day now,
you're going to turn on the TV and see a weather person pointing to
some blob out in the Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico and making one of
two basic meteorological statements:

(1) There is no need to panic
(2) We could all be killed

Yes, hurricane season is an exciting time to be in Florida. If you're
new to the area, you're probably wondering what you need to do to
prepare for the possibility that we'll get hit by "the big one".
Based on our experiences, we recommend that you follow this simple
three-step hurricane preparedness plan:

Step 1. - Buy enough food and bottled water to last your family for
at least three days

Step 2 - Put these supplies into your car

Step 3 - Drive to Ohio and remain there until Halloween.
Unfortunately, statistics show that most people will not follow this
sensible plan. Most people will foolishly stay here in Florida.

We'll start with one of the most important hurricane preparedness items:

HOMEOWNERS' INSURANCE

If you own a home, you must have hurricane insurance. Fortunately,
this insurance is cheap and easy to get, as long as your home meets
two basic requirements:

(1) It is reasonably well-built, and

(2) It is located in Ohio

Unfortunately, if your home is located in Florida, or any other area
that might actually be hit by a hurricane, most insurance companies
would prefer not to sell you hurricane insurance, because then they
might be required to pay YOU money, and that is certainly not why
they got into the insurance business in the first place. So you'll
have to scrounge around for an insurance company, which will charge
you an annual premium roughly equal to the replacement value of your
house. At any moment, this company can drop you like used dental
floss.

EVACUATION ROUTE

If you live in a low-lying area, you should have an evacuation route
planned out. (To determine whether you live in a low-lying area, look
at your driver's license; if it says "Florida" you live in a low-lying area).

HURRICANE SUPPLIES

If you don't evacuate, you will need a mess of supplies. Do not buy
them now! Florida tradition requires that you wait until the last
possible minute, then go to the supermarket and get into vicious
fights with strangers over who gets the last can of SPAM.

In addition to food and water, you will need the following supplies:

23 flashlights. At least $167 worth of batteries that turn out, when
the power goes off, to be the wrong size for the flashlights.

Bleach. (No, I don't know what the bleach is for. NOBODY knows what the
bleach is for, but it's traditional, so GET some).

A 55 gallon drum of underarm deodorant.

A big knife that you can strap to your leg. (This will be useless in
a hurricane, but it looks cool).

A large quantity of raw chicken, to placate the alligators. (Ask
anybody who went through a hurricane; after the hurricane, there WILL
be irate alligators).

$35,000 in cash or diamonds so that, after the hurricane passes, you
can buy a generator from a man with no discernible teeth.

BE INFORMED

Of course these are just basic precautions. As the hurricane draws
near, it is vitally important that you keep abreast of the situation
by turning on your television and watching TV reporters in rain
slickers stand right next to the ocean and tell you over and over how
vitally important it is for everybody to stay away from the ocean.

Good luck, and remember: it's great living in Paradise.

TROPICAL STORM FAY

AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
ESTIMATED TO BE INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR LATITUDE 18.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...
WEST-NORTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT
335 MILES...540 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GENERAL
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND PASS NEAR OR OVER
EASTERN CUBA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SHIP OBERVATIONS AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURING MAINLY OVER
WATER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED WHILE THE CENTER OF FAY IS OVER HISPANIOLA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...18.6 N...70.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

This one is coming close to home, one can only hope. I know its a sick thing to say but i love these storms and the sound of the wind coming off them is totally amazing!
Plus I am off Tuesday and Wednesday depending on where it makes land fall i will be there with my camera,. I am very excited about this i hope my weather void diminishes.
Here is Fay's visible satellite loop link if you want to watch her. I work tomorrow till 3pm as soon as i get home I will post an update. Until then be good and if u cant be good,be good at it.
Jess
Cloud Stalker

Hurricane Dolly makes land fall

What a beautiful storm 94L grew up to be. Now Dolly, she smashed ashore on the South Texas coast on Padre Island early this afternoon, bringing 100 mph winds and a storm surge of 6-8 feet to the coast. The southern edge of the eyewall is now battering Harlingen, where sustained winds of 56 mph, gusting to 74 mph, have been observed. Reports from the Hurricane Hunters show that Dolly's pressure is now rising, and radar imagery out of Brownsville, Texas confirms that the storm is starting to weaken. Visible satellite loops show the eye is starting to deteriorate, though Dolly still looks plenty impressive.

This is usally my day off, but I had to work today so i missed the actual landfall.
oh well i have a feeling i will have another chance.

97L isnt looking impressive right now as it passes over cooler waters, but it still has a nice spin to it. I will keep a closer eye on this weekend as it moves into warmer waters.
Jess
Cloud Stalker

HURRICANE DOLLY

Radar loop of Hurricane Dolly

Hurricane Dolly has become the second hurricane of the 2008 hurricane season. Dolly is barely a hurricane, and is still struggling to build a complete eyewall. Visible satellite loops show an eye developing, and heavy thunderstorm activity continues to increase near the core of the storm. Dolly has good upper-level outflow to the west and north, but restricted on the south side, where an upper level low pressure system is still interfering. Maximum surface winds measured by the SFMR instrument on the current Hurricane Hunter aircraft inside Dolly were 74 mph (65 kt), measured at 4:17 pm EDT. Brownsville, Texas long-range radar shows the eyewall is complete on Dolly's west side, but is struggling to get established on the east side. Radar estimated rainfall amounts of 1/10 of an inch have fallen on the Texas/Mexico coast so far, thanks to the outermost spiral bands of Dolly.


The intensification potential for Dolly remains high, but until Dolly can form a full eyewall, it won't be able to take full advantage of the favorable environment. Wind shear over Dolly is about five knots, and is expected to remain below ten knots over the next two days. An upper level high pressure system is moving into place over the storm, which should enhance Dolly's upper-level outflow and allow more rapid intensification. Dolly is over waters of 29°C. The waters cool to about 28°C by midnight tonight as Dolly approaches the coast and passes over a cool ocean eddy. The depth of the warm waters Dolly is over has decreased, and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential has fallen from about 40 to 20 kJ/cm**2. This decreases the potential of rapid intensification. Our skill in making intensity forecasts is poor, but it currently appears that Dolly only has enough time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane. A Category 2 hurricane still a possibility, though. The track forecast
The track forecast has changed little since this morning, with the various computer models predicting pretty much the same behavior as they did 12 hours ago. Four models are predicting a landfall in northeastern Mexico--the UKMET, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and GFS--and two models are predicting a Texas landfall--the GFDL (just north of Brownsville) and the HWRF (near Corpus Christi). Dolly could come ashore anywhere within the cone of uncertainty, and one should not assume the storm will track down the "skinny black line" NHC has drawn through their official forecast. The timing of Dolly's landfall, as predicted by the computer models, will be anywhere from 8 am - 10 pm Wednesday. However, the GFS and ECMWF hint that Dolly may stall out right by the coast Wednesday, and some slow and erratic motion is possible tomorrow before the storm finally comes ashore.
SOURCE

From NOAA
500 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

DOLLY IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED BY THE NWS RADAR FROM
BROWNSVILLE...NOAA BUOYS..SATELLITE AND VERY IMPORTANTLY...BY AN
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT. THE RADAR IS MEASURING 75
KNOTS AT ABOUT 20 THOUSAND FEET AND SHOW NUMEROUS RAINBANDS ALREADY
APPROACHING THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.
DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT DOLLY IS A HURRICANE AND WIND DATA
JUST RECEIVED FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAVE CONFIRMED IT.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS 65 KNOTS. WITH THE PREVAILING LOW
SHEAR...DOLLY IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST A LITTLE BIT STRONGER.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS.
THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
SMALL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF DOLLY
SHOULD BE NEAR THE US/MEXICO BORDER WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. DOLLY IS LARGE CYCLONE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. AFTER LANDFALL...DOLLY
SHOULD TURN MORE TO WEST AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING THE CORE OF DOLLY INLAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE
RE-EMPHASIZED THAT...DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES...ONE MUST
NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL POINT IN THIS FORECAST.

DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION AT LANDFALL...DOLLY COULD DUMP VERY HEAVY
RAINS IN THE AREA.

Tropical storm Dolly update

500 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

THE STRUCTURE OF DOLLY APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING VERY GRADUAL
CHANGES. THE OUTERMOST CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING
TODAY...WHILE CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWLY ON THE INCREASE NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS NOW MUCH
SMALLER...AS DETERMINED FROM STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER
DATA THAT RECENTLY INDICATED A MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND OF 45 KT ABOUT
45 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. DOLLY IS HEADED TOWARD A RELATIVE
MAXIMUM IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...AND IT IS BENEATH A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT COVERS NEARLY THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. IT SEEMS TO BE TAKING A WHILE...HOWEVER...FOR AN INNER
CORE TO BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE...SO IT IS RATHER UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH
DOLLY WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ITS ENVIRONMENT. ALL OF THE INTENSITY
MODELS FORECAST AN UPWARD INTENSITY TREND UNTIL FINAL
LANDFALL...BUT THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING.
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS FORECAST ABOUT 65 KT IN 48 HOURS...WHILE
THE GFDL IS A LITTLE HIGHER AT 75-80 KT. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS SO CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
AGAIN LEANS TOWARD THE HIGHER GFDL SOLUTION. ANOTHER COMPLICATION
IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT KNOWING EXACTLY HOW FAST DOLLY
WILL REACH THE COAST. IF IT MAKES LANDFALL SOONER THAN THE
OFFICIAL TRACK INDICATES...IT MIGHT RUN OUT OF TIME TO REACH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY. BUT IF THE OPPOSITE
OCCURS...DOLLY WOULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE TIME OVER THE WARM WATERS.

DOLLY CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
REMAINS 300/16. WHILE IT IS A LITTLE UNNERVING TO OBSERVE THIS FAST
MOTION AND FORECAST THE CENTER OF DOLLY TO TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO
REACH THE COAST...ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INSIST THAT THE
FORWARD SPEED WILL BE ABOUT HALF ITS CURRENT VALUE BY TOMORROW
NIGHT. THE MODELS AGREE SURPRISINGLY WELL ON THE SLOW-DOWN...SO
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...IN TERMS OF FORWARD SPEED...IS RIGHT
IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE MODELS DO NOT GO INLAND IN
EXACTLY THE SAME LOCATIONS...HOWEVER. THE GFS AND UKMET FORECAST
DOLLY TO CROSS THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...WHILE THE GFDL
AND HWRF TRACKS GO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS...GIVING RESPECT TO THE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NWS HURRICANE MODELS...THE GFDL AND HWRF.
THIS NEW TRACK IS NOT MEANINGFULLY DIFFERENT THAN THE PREVIOUS
ONE...EXCEPT TO BE A LITTLE FASTER. IT IS AGAIN IMPORTANT TO
EMPHASIZE THAT...WITH RELIABLE MODELS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE OFFICIAL
TRACK...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL LOCATION IMPLIED
BY THE OFFICIAL TRACK.

WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE AND
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREAS LATER TONIGHT.

Hello Dolly!!

DOLLY HEADING TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST OR ABOUT 220
MILES...350 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 165 MILES...265
KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A
NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO TONIGHT...EMERGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF ON TUESDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BEFORE DOLLY
REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTER DOLLY EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TONIGHT.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4
INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF UP
TO 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...18.9 N...85.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL

000
WTNT33 KNHC 191808
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008

...CRISTOBAL FORMS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...LIKELY TO
STRENGTHEN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING
PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES...160 KM...EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 225
MILES...365 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
RECENTLY MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...32.8 N...78.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

Hurricane Bertha

Hurricane Bertha continues trundling along towards Bermuda, but is not in a hurry to get there. The storm has a rather sloppy appearance on satellite loops, thanks to the fact that the eyewall dissolved last night, with a new, much larger eye taking its place. Bertha will probably start to intensify today now that this Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC) is done. Wind shear is low (less than 10 knots) and water temperatures are warm (28°C). Shear if forecast to remain below 10 knots until Sunday, but the water temperatures will gradually cool to 26°C by the time Bertha reaches Bermuda's latitude on Sunday. Intensification back to Category 2 status seems probable, and Bertha still has an outside chance at reaching Category 3 status again. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters will make their first flight into Bertha this afternoon to check on the storm's strength.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST OR ABOUT 310 MILES...
500 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...
BERTHA'S FRINGES WILL BE NEARING BERMUDA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRPLANE IS SCHEDULED
TO CHECK BERTHA LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...28.5 N...62.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

Jess
Cloud Stalker

Hurricane Bertha

Hurricane Bertha is back at Category 2 status, and appears destined to become one of the longest-lasting July hurricanes on record. Hurricane Emily of 2005 spent seven full days at hurricane strength in July, which I believe is the record. Bertha is halfway there. The storm is in no hurry to recurve out to sea, and will spend 3-4 more days over waters warm enough to maintain it at hurricane intensity.
She sure has been fun to watch, I can honestly say. She is no threat to anyone yet, but Bermuda needs to keep an eyes this storm.

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM AST THU JUL 10 2008

...BERTHA STILL A NORTHWESTWARD-MOVING CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT TO WHICH BERTHA COULD
IMPACT BERMUDA. INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF BERTHA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.8 WEST OR ABOUT 425 MILES...
685 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH BERMUDA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...
140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF HAVE STARTED TO AFFECTED BERMUDA. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...27.2 N...60.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

Jess
Cloud Stalker

Hurricane Bertha

HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 AM AST TUE JUL 08 2008

...POWERFUL BERTHA MAINTAINING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.3 WEST OR ABOUT 675 MILES...
1085 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT
1035 MILES...1660 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY MAY OCCUR TODAY...
BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...21.4 N...53.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

Hurricane Bertha

Beautiful isn't she.

HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM AST MON JUL 07 2008

...BERTHA STRENGTHEN TO A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 115 MPH WINDS...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.1 WEST OR ABOUT 730 MILES...
1175 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT
1150 MILES...1855 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...20.1 N...52.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

Hurricane season is here

June 1st start this years hurricane season for the atlantic. We have already had are first named storm of the season, Arthur.
THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS
OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. WHILE
REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED...ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.
Tropical Storm Arthur formed near the Belize coast on May 31, developing out of the interaction between a tropical wave and the remnants of Tropical Storm Alma, and made landfall on Belize a short while later. The system traversed the Yucatan Peninsula slowly and dissipated inland on June 2. Arthur is the first tropical storm to form in May since Tropical Storm Arlene in 1981. Other systems have formed (such as Subtropical Storm Andrea in 2007), but they have started out as subtropical. The formation of Arthur also marks the first time that a named storm formed in May for two consecutive years.

I wonder how close this years prediction will be and how close to the mark will it be. On December 7, 2007, Klotzbach's team issued its first extended-range forecast for the 2008 season, predicting above-average activity (13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 of Category 3 or higher). On April 9, 2008, the CSU issued a new forecast, anticipating a well above average hurricane season of 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted an above average season with 12 to 16 storms, 6 to 9 hurricanes, and 2 to 5 major hurricanes.As everyone knows hurricane predictions are not an exact science, During the season 28 storms formed (27 named and one unnamed), surpassing almost all records for storm formation in the Atlantic. More tropical storms, hurricanes, and Category 5 hurricanes formed during the season than in any previously recorded Atlantic season; the only major record for number of storms the season did not capture was most major hurricanes, still held by the 1950 season.

The season was the first season to use "V" and "W" names, and when the season ran out of official alphabetical names after the use of Wilma, forecasters resorted to using letters from the Greek alphabet for the first time (although Alpha and Delta had been used for subtropical storms in the 1970s).

Almost every storm in 2005 set a record for early formation. Of the twenty-eight storms which formed, twenty-two of them qualified as the earliest-forming storm of that number; starting with Hurricane Dennis, almost every storm was such. Source-

2008 hurricane names:
Arthur- may 31
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gustav
Hanna
Ike
Josephine
Kyle
Laura
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paloma
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred

Weather wise this week for rain we are looking at the sea breezes to fire up. Friday on my way home from work i saw a beautiful multicell thunderstorm at least 20 to 25 miles away, you can see ts anvil and parts of the storm still trying to fire up.


Then when I got home, from my back yard you can see a single cell thunderhead that was fully electrified, unfortunately my camera couldn't catch the lightning the shutter just doesn't move slow enough.

Then about 10pm outside in the distance I could see another beautiful thunderhead only visual by its anvil zits. It as such a beautiful site.
Yesterday we had storms firing up in the north I was heading out to get a closer look but my car refused to start. I guess it wasn't meant to be. Another day another storm. Well that's it for me. Have a good Monday!!
Jess
Cloud Stalker

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT

Atlantic SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
WONT41 KNHC 311048
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

...CORRECT SPELLING OF GUATEMALA...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM ALMA...IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE. THE LOW IS MOVING
SLOWLY WESTWARD...AND THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM IS
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IF
THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. EVEN IF NO DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...
GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.
so it begins, Tomorrow is the start of the atlantic hurricane season and already there is an area of disturbance. Right On!! I will be keeping an eye on this, however Florida has been dominated by an high pressure system giving us all the blue skies this month. That could keep the system away if it stays organized and develops into a depression. We will see.
For us here on the westcoast their is a good chance of showers from the west coast seabeeze, in the afternoon but it probably more to the south.
Thats all for me right now, I hope your enjoying your weekend!
Jess
Cloud Stalker