My goodness will you look at that the tropic's are having a party and it didn"t invite me.#1 is in a nice loving environment for its kind, but it will be heading to shore soon.
Perhaps as a depression, i don't think it will be over water long enough to become any more then a great rain maker for portions of Nicaragua,Honduras and Belize.
#2 See that baby blob under Mama blob Nana, yup thats it with the yellow circle around it. That little guy or gurl is gonna encounter unfavorable winds here in the next couple of days, NOAA isn't holding its breathe on this one.
poor mama blob Nana is coming to an end, she is being sheared to death. I dont know how much longer she can hang on.
Now Tropical depression 15 is a little bit more complicated:THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FOUND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 34 KT FROM 925 MB...WHICH DOES NOT
SUPPORT AN UPGRADE TO A TROPICAL STORM. THERE WERE SFMR WINDS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE...BUT IN RAINY CONDITIONS THIS WIND SPEED
RANGE IS NOT WHERE THE INSTRUMENT PERFORMS BEST. THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME
WESTERLY SHEAR STILL EVIDENT IN INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN IN WHAT SHOULD BE A
MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE GFDL
AND HWRF BOTH MAKING THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE BEFORE IT EXITS THE
CARIBBEAN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
THERE IS VERY LITTLE SURROUNDING MID-LEVEL FLOW AND THE DEPRESSION
IS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY. A LARGE UPPER-LOW EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
IS DRIVING SOUTHWARD IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD IN
ANOTHER 24-36 HOURS. COMPARED TO SIX HOURS AGO THE GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED WESTWARD...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE CYCLONE
WILL BE CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LOW. A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS NOW
SHOW THE CYCLONE BEING LEFT BEHIND BY THIS FEATURE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT AT THE LONGER RANGES AND IS
IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. THE HWRF AND GFDL ARE MUCH
SLOWER BRINGING THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CONSEQUENTLY
ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE LEFT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
See what I mean, But It sure does look like this one will be named by as early as tomorrow. As always I will be watching for any continuing development.Its late now or very early how every you look at I'm getting goofy and should head off to bed.
Good night.
Jess cloud Stalker
view from a bike ride Sunday.
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