Tropical Storm Cristobel

TD Three has strengthened to Tropical Storm Cristobal. Cristobal
is centered near 19.3N 92.7W at 02/1515 UTC or 130 nm WSW of
Campeche Mexico moving SW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is
within 270 nm of the center in the east semicircle and 90 nm
west semicircle, including the Yucatan Peninsula and portions of
southern Mexico. Cristobal is forecast to meander over the
southern Bay of Campeche through Thursday. Additional heavy
rainfall is expected over southern Mexico and northern Central
America, potentially leading to life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides during the next few days. See the latest NHC
forecast advisory at hurricanes.gov for more information.Forecaster Hagen

Tropical Storm Bertha

...SPECIAL FEATURES

Tropical Storm Bertha is located near 33.3N 79.5W at 27/1530 UTC 
or 35 nm NE of Charleston, South Carolina and is moving N at 
15 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. 
Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. 
Scattered moderate convection surrounds the center of the storm 
with rainbands moving well inland across South Carolina and the 
northern SC coast in addition to southern North Carolina. 
Scattered moderate convection is also to the east of the low 
center from 32N-34N between 77W-80W. Bertha will continue to 
generally move northward through tonight with a gradual increase 
in forward speed. Bertha will move inland across eastern and 
northern South Carolina later today and into central North 
Carolina by tonight.  See the latest NHC forecast/advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more detail
 forecaster AReinhart
https://www.facebook.com/cloudstalker/videos/10158469389923330/ 
Bertha at landfall from my Radar app.
 

  
    
  

Bertha has been downgraded to a tropical depression as of the two pm advisory.

  
    
  

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR

...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR...

Tropical Storm Arthur is near 33.5N 76.6W at 18/0900 UTC, or 
about 75 nm S of Morehead City, North Carolina, moving NNE at 12 
kt. Minimum central pressure is 1002 mb and maximum sustained 
winds are near 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is from 33N to 37N W of 72W.

On the forecast track, the center of Arthur will approach the 
coast of North Carolina during the next few hours, and then move 
near or just east of the coast of North Carolina later today. 
Arthur is then forecast to turn away from the east coast of the 
United States tonight and Tuesday. While some strengthening is 
forecast during the next 48 hours, Arthur is likely to lose its 
tropical characteristics on Tuesday.Ramos

Arthur- First storm of the Season

Tropical Storm Arthur is near 30.0N 77.6W at 0900 UTC, or about 
303 nm SSW of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, moving NNE at 8 kt.

Minimum central pressure is 1006 mb and maximum sustained winds 
are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to strong 
convection is N of 23N between 74W and 78W. On the forecast 
track, Arthur will remain well offshore the east coast of Florida,
Georgia, and South Carolina today, and then move near or just 
east of the coast of North Carolina on Monday. Some strengthening
is forecast during the next 48 hours. Arthur is likely to lose 
its tropical characteristics on Tuesday. 

 -Ramos-

Special Tropical Weather Outlook " Number one is born "

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat May 16 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential 
for tropical or subtropical development off the east coast of 
Florida. 

1. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and satellite images 
indicate that the low pressure system located just off the coast of 
east-central Florida has become better defined today.  In addition, 
the associated showers and thunderstorms continue to gradually 
organize. If these trends continues, advisories will likely be 
initiated on this system as a tropical or subtropical depression 
later today. Later in the weekend and early next week, the system 
is expected to move generally northeastward over the western 
Atlantic near or east of the Carolinas.

The system will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy 
rains across portions of east-central Florida through tonight.  
Interests near the North Carolina coast should closely monitor the 
progress of this system, as it could produce gusty winds and heavy 
rains there on Monday, and a tropical storm watch will likely be
issued for that area later today.  In addition, hazardous marine 
conditions will spread northward during the next few days, likely 
causing dangerous surf and rip currents along much of the southeast 
and mid-Atlantic coasts of the U.S. See products from your local 
National Weather Service office for more details. Another Air Force 
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the 
system this evening. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on 
this system will be issued by 9 PM EDT today, or earlier if needed.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

So it begins

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

210 PM EDT Fri May 15 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential 
for tropical or subtropical development near the northwest Bahamas. 

1. Satellite data and surface observations indicate that the trough of 
low pressure located over the Straits of Florida has generally 
changed little today.  This system continues to produce 
a large area of disorganized shower activity and gusty winds 
across the Florida Keys, portions of southeast Florida, and 
the northwestern Bahamas.  Gradual development of this system is 
still expected, and it will likely become a tropical or subtropical 
storm on Saturday when it is located near the northwestern Bahamas. 
Later in the weekend and early next week, the system is expected to 
move generally northeastward over the western Atlantic.

Regardless of development, the disturbance will continue to bring 
heavy rainfall and wind gusts to tropical-storm-force across 
portions of the Florida Keys, southeast Florida and the Bahamas 
through Saturday.  In addition, hazardous marine conditions are 
expected along the Florida east coast and in the Bahamas where Gale 
Warnings are in effect.  Dangerous surf conditions and rip currents 
are possible along portions of the southeast U.S. coast this 
weekend and early next week.  See products from your local weather 
office and High Seas Forecasts for more details. An Air Force 
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the 
disturbance tomorrow morning, if necessary. The next Special 
Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 PM EDT 
tonight, or earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
available on the Web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Cangialosi