Cloud Stalker: Tropical Depression SIXTEEN

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Tropical Depression SIXTEEN

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS REPLACED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHERN BELIZE WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE HONDURAS COAST FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA/HONDURAS BORDER
AS WELL AS THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
GUATEMALA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST
OR ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM...EAST OF LIMON HONDURAS AND ABOUT 270
MILES...430 KM...EAST OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY NEAR
THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...NORTHERN HONDURAS...
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
UP TO 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

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HAIL (3/4 inch or greater)

Hail can cause significant damage to your vehicle, break windows and damage roofs of homes and businesses.
Hail can cause significant bodily injuries such as broken bones and even blindness if wind blown.
Softball (4.5 inches) sized hail was reported in Lake Wales, Florida on March 30, 1996.
Haildrifts, up to four feet deep of dime to nickel sized hail, occurred in low-lying areas near Zephyrhills, Florida on January 29, 1997.
Hailstones the size of softballs can fall at speeds faster than 100 mph

supercell

Supercells derive their rotation through tilting of horizontal vorticity (an invisible horizontal vortex) caused by wind shear. Strong updrafts lift the air turning about a horizontal axis and cause this air to turn about a vertical axis. This forms the deep rotating updraft, the mesocyclone.
A cap or capping inversion is usually required to form a downdraft of sufficient strength. The cap puts an inverted (warm-above-cold) layer above a normal (cold-above-warm) boundary layer, and by preventing warm surface air from sinking too far, allows one or both of the following:
Air below the cap warms and/or becomes more moist
Air above the cap cools
This creates a warmer, moister layer below a cooler layer, which is increasingly unstable (because warm air is less dense and tends to rise). When the cap weakens or moves, explosive development follows.
In North America, supercells usually show up on Doppler radar as starting at a point or hook shape on the southwestern side, fanning out to the northeast. The heaviest precipitation is usually on the southwest side, ending abruptly short of the rain-free updraft base or main updraft (not visible to radar). The rear flank downdraft, or RFD, carries precipitation counterclockwise around the north and northwest side of the updraft base, producing a "hook echo" that indicates the presence of a mesocyclone.