Tropical Depression SIXTEEN

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS REPLACED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHERN BELIZE WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE HONDURAS COAST FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA/HONDURAS BORDER
AS WELL AS THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
GUATEMALA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST
OR ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM...EAST OF LIMON HONDURAS AND ABOUT 270
MILES...430 KM...EAST OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY NEAR
THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...NORTHERN HONDURAS...
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
UP TO 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

HURRICANE OMAR

Hurricane Omar Discussion Number 8

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on October 15, 2008





An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft reports that there has been
no appreciable strengthening of Omar over the past few hours. An
elliptical and partially open eye was observed but the inner core
is not yet well-defined. The central pressure has not fallen and
maximum SFMR-observed surface wind speeds have been near 65
kt...which is used for the advisory intensity. Satellite images
show that Omar continues to generate very deep convection with a
large area of cloud tops colder than -80 deg c. Upper-level
outflow is well-established over the eastern semicircle and
restricted to the west...as westerly shear continues to impact the
hurricane. However...the shear is not expected to be strong enough
to prevent strengthening. The official intensity forecast is the
same as the previous one and a little above the model consensus.
By day 5...global models depict the cyclone interacting with a
strong baroclinic zone over the North Atlantic so the official
forecast shows Omar becoming extratropical by that time.

Initial motion is around 050/6. There has not been much change to
the official forecast track or reasoning. A mid-level trough to
the north of the hurricane along with a ridge to the east is
creating a southwesterly steering current and Omar is expected to
continue northeastward with a gradual increase in forward speed.
The forward motion slows a little around day 3 as the trough lifts
out ahead of Omar. The system should accelerate again near the end
of the period as it encounters the main branch of the mid-latitude
westerlies. Dynamical track prediction models are tightly
clustered...especially for the first 24 hours and the official
forecast is close to the model consensus albeit a little slower.
This is slightly faster than the previous forecast...but more or
less along the same trajectory.

Although the official forecast keeps the center east of Puerto
Rico...a deviation to the left of the current motion could require
changing the Hurricane Watch to a Hurricane Warning for that
island. I will pray that dosnt happen.

Its a boy/Omar is borm

Tropical storm Omar is born, but it doesn't look to be a threat for the USA. I will have More information as it becomes available.

Tropical action/Nana downgraded

My goodness will you look at that the tropic's are having a party and it didn"t invite me.
#1 is in a nice loving environment for its kind, but it will be heading to shore soon.
Perhaps as a depression, i don't think it will be over water long enough to become any more then a great rain maker for portions of Nicaragua,Honduras and Belize.
#2 See that baby blob under Mama blob Nana, yup thats it with the yellow circle around it. That little guy or gurl is gonna encounter unfavorable winds here in the next couple of days, NOAA isn't holding its breathe on this one.
poor mama blob Nana is coming to an end, she is being sheared to death. I dont know how much longer she can hang on.
Now Tropical depression 15 is a little bit more complicated:THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FOUND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 34 KT FROM 925 MB...WHICH DOES NOT
SUPPORT AN UPGRADE TO A TROPICAL STORM. THERE WERE SFMR WINDS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE...BUT IN RAINY CONDITIONS THIS WIND SPEED
RANGE IS NOT WHERE THE INSTRUMENT PERFORMS BEST. THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME
WESTERLY SHEAR STILL EVIDENT IN INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN IN WHAT SHOULD BE A
MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE GFDL
AND HWRF BOTH MAKING THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE BEFORE IT EXITS THE
CARIBBEAN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

THERE IS VERY LITTLE SURROUNDING MID-LEVEL FLOW AND THE DEPRESSION
IS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY. A LARGE UPPER-LOW EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
IS DRIVING SOUTHWARD IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD IN
ANOTHER 24-36 HOURS. COMPARED TO SIX HOURS AGO THE GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED WESTWARD...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE CYCLONE
WILL BE CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LOW. A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS NOW
SHOW THE CYCLONE BEING LEFT BEHIND BY THIS FEATURE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT AT THE LONGER RANGES AND IS
IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. THE HWRF AND GFDL ARE MUCH
SLOWER BRINGING THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CONSEQUENTLY
ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE LEFT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
See what I mean, But It sure does look like this one will be named by as early as tomorrow. As always I will be watching for any continuing development.Its late now or very early how every you look at I'm getting goofy and should head off to bed.
Good night.
Jess cloud Stalker
view from a bike ride Sunday.