Cloud Stalker: TROPICAL STORM MARCO

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

TROPICAL STORM MARCO

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
700 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008

...MARCO EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL LATER TODAY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARCO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST OR ABOUT 80
MILES...125 KM...SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

MARCO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARCO SHOULD MOVE INLAND WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...AND MARCO
COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST.

MARCO IS AN EXTREMELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ONLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

MARCO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES... WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICAN STATES OF NORTHERN VERACRUZ...NORTHERN
PUEBLA... HILDALGO...AND SAN LUIS POTOSI.

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HAIL (3/4 inch or greater)

Hail can cause significant damage to your vehicle, break windows and damage roofs of homes and businesses.
Hail can cause significant bodily injuries such as broken bones and even blindness if wind blown.
Softball (4.5 inches) sized hail was reported in Lake Wales, Florida on March 30, 1996.
Haildrifts, up to four feet deep of dime to nickel sized hail, occurred in low-lying areas near Zephyrhills, Florida on January 29, 1997.
Hailstones the size of softballs can fall at speeds faster than 100 mph

supercell

Supercells derive their rotation through tilting of horizontal vorticity (an invisible horizontal vortex) caused by wind shear. Strong updrafts lift the air turning about a horizontal axis and cause this air to turn about a vertical axis. This forms the deep rotating updraft, the mesocyclone.
A cap or capping inversion is usually required to form a downdraft of sufficient strength. The cap puts an inverted (warm-above-cold) layer above a normal (cold-above-warm) boundary layer, and by preventing warm surface air from sinking too far, allows one or both of the following:
Air below the cap warms and/or becomes more moist
Air above the cap cools
This creates a warmer, moister layer below a cooler layer, which is increasingly unstable (because warm air is less dense and tends to rise). When the cap weakens or moves, explosive development follows.
In North America, supercells usually show up on Doppler radar as starting at a point or hook shape on the southwestern side, fanning out to the northeast. The heaviest precipitation is usually on the southwest side, ending abruptly short of the rain-free updraft base or main updraft (not visible to radar). The rear flank downdraft, or RFD, carries precipitation counterclockwise around the north and northwest side of the updraft base, producing a "hook echo" that indicates the presence of a mesocyclone.