Cloud Stalker: felix gone but sub tropical Gaberial hangs close to Nc/Sc coast

Saturday, September 8, 2007

felix gone but sub tropical Gaberial hangs close to Nc/Sc coast

Two days off in a row and no fun weather,I've been keeping an eye on sub tropical storm Gabriel, still disorganized but it will bring much needed rain to the east coast!! I'm getting a little nervous we are in our half way mark for the rainy season and we still our way below the normal mark, we really need to to see some rain over here on the west coast(central)Friday we received .25" Summer showers. I used o love those when i was a kid....Wait I still do!! Who doesn't like to play in the rain!!
I just hope we see more before the dry season returns.
I do have to admit I am looking forward to some cooler air, I love the change of seasons!!
This is from the SERT homepage:

The area of low pressure located between Bermuda and the southeastern U.S. coast continues to become better organized. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating the system have not yet found a well-defined closed center of circulation. However, upper level shearing winds have weakened over the past 24 hours, meaning that the environment surrounding the system has become more favorable for development. Thunderstorm activity has also become more concentrated since Thursday. The disturbance will likely become a tropical or subtropical cyclone within the next 12-24 hours as it meanders slowly westward or west-northwestward over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. Due to its proximity to the coast, tropical storm watches could be issued as early as this evening. Forecast models usually do not handle weak tropical systems well, but current models show the disturbance continuing to drift west-northwestward toward the Carolina's and mid-Atlantic coast during the next 2-3 days.
At present, this system poses no threat to Florida; however, strong northeasterly winds along the west side of the disturbance will generate ocean swells that will lead to a high threat of rip currents this weekend along the southeast Florida coast beaches. Additionally, there will also be a moderate risk of rip currents along the panhandle and Big Bend coast on Friday. Beach goers should check with local lifeguards or beach patrol and heed any warning flags or signs.

Unsettled weather associated with a trough of low pressure will spread over south Florida this weekend. Rain chances will gradually increase on Saturday and especially into Sunday as the trough lifts northwestward, bringing an abundant supply of moisture to the southern peninsula. With deep tropical moisture in place, locally heavy rainfall will be a potential threat on Sunday across the region.

Meanwhile, high pressure over the southeastern U.S. should keep north Florida mostly dry through the upcoming weekend. Rain chances may increase slightly by Sunday, with a few coastal showers during the morning hours and mainly isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. With moisture levels forecast to gradually increase by late in the weekend, rain chances should return to more seasonal levels by the first half of next week.

Temperatures this weekend will be in the upper 80s to low 90s along the coast, with middle 90s expected in inland locations. Drier air and lower humidity associated with northerly flow around the area of low pressure in the Atlantic are expected to keep heat indices around 100 degrees or lower across the northern tier of the state.

Elsewhere in the tropics, disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure extend from southern Louisiana to Cuba. While upper-level winds across the Gulf of Mexico remain favorable, any development should be slow to occur.
AVILA SAYS

Issued at 530 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2007
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABNT20 KNHC 080907 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 530 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2007 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE LOCATED ABOUT 315 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Well have a beautiful weekend and remember
KEEP YOUR EYES TO THE SKY!!!
Jessika Bland

1 comment:

Dewdrop said...: BEAUTIFUL!!!; September 8, 2007 at 5:16 PM

Post a Comment

HAIL (3/4 inch or greater)

Hail can cause significant damage to your vehicle, break windows and damage roofs of homes and businesses.
Hail can cause significant bodily injuries such as broken bones and even blindness if wind blown.
Softball (4.5 inches) sized hail was reported in Lake Wales, Florida on March 30, 1996.
Haildrifts, up to four feet deep of dime to nickel sized hail, occurred in low-lying areas near Zephyrhills, Florida on January 29, 1997.
Hailstones the size of softballs can fall at speeds faster than 100 mph

supercell

Supercells derive their rotation through tilting of horizontal vorticity (an invisible horizontal vortex) caused by wind shear. Strong updrafts lift the air turning about a horizontal axis and cause this air to turn about a vertical axis. This forms the deep rotating updraft, the mesocyclone.
A cap or capping inversion is usually required to form a downdraft of sufficient strength. The cap puts an inverted (warm-above-cold) layer above a normal (cold-above-warm) boundary layer, and by preventing warm surface air from sinking too far, allows one or both of the following:
Air below the cap warms and/or becomes more moist
Air above the cap cools
This creates a warmer, moister layer below a cooler layer, which is increasingly unstable (because warm air is less dense and tends to rise). When the cap weakens or moves, explosive development follows.
In North America, supercells usually show up on Doppler radar as starting at a point or hook shape on the southwestern side, fanning out to the northeast. The heaviest precipitation is usually on the southwest side, ending abruptly short of the rain-free updraft base or main updraft (not visible to radar). The rear flank downdraft, or RFD, carries precipitation counterclockwise around the north and northwest side of the updraft base, producing a "hook echo" that indicates the presence of a mesocyclone.