Hurricane season starting a little early

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
340 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...IF NECESSARY.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

If this turns into a named storm it will be the tenth consecutive year that a tropical storm formed in May. Typically named storms only happen every other May.

Drought relief is under way Florida is getting much need rain, and rain is forcasted for the next 5 days. I cant wait for my neighborhood to turn green again!
I have some pretty cool pictures i have taken, which i will share later. for now it's time to make dinner.
Jess
Yea its getting interesting around here!

Florida heat wave

It's only May and yes folks we are seeing temps reaching the 90's.
The drought is getting worse, Florida is 4.53 inches behind in rain already for the year. This is bad, and yes each day that goes by without rain is just making it worse.I read recently my county- Pasco is doing a good job with conserving our water.but that also means no fun in the hose for the kids this summer. Those of us without pools no how bad this sucks! While I'm here bitching about no rain five states,TX,LA,MS.Al.GA are getting pounded,storm after storm after storm. 30 Tornado's have been reported since Friday,and wide spread flooding hail storms and on
Saturday a severe thunderstorm warning went up at 3:06 pm in Dallas Texas At 3:30pm 70mph winds collapsed the Dallas Cowboy's practice facility. They are reporting that event as a MicroburstClick on Microburst to read how this event forms.
Scary stuff if you don't know whats going on weather wise around you. That's why a weather radio is an absolute necessity!! If you don't have one go out and get one before you become one of those people....you know what i mean.
Jess

Tornado's in pasco???

Tornado Reports .
1231 4 E HOLIDAY PASCO FL 2819 8268 TORNADO DAMAGE REPORTED IN TRINITY OAKS SUBDIVISION. (TBW)
1250 2 SSW LAND O' LAKES PASCO FL 2819 8247 PUBLIC REPORT OF A TORNADO JUST NORTH OF INTERSECTION OF STATE ROAD 54 AND U.S. HIGHWAY 41 MOVING EAST NORTHEAST. (TBW)
1300 3 NNE WESLEY CHAPEL PASCO FL 2828 8231 POSSIBLE TORNADO. NWS ON ROUTE TO DO SURVEY. (TBW)SOURCE
Well it's about time we had some action around here! Wouldn't you know it i was working in a warehouse without windows, so every chance i got i would open the back door and watch the sky, it was beautiful. All I had was a camera phone but i still got some cool lighting video.
It definitely was not chase able storm anyway, and if there were tornadoes they were rain wrapped speaking of rain were received 1.52inches of much needed rain.
Click HERE for some story's on today's weather event.
Now the action has past its time to sit back and enjoy some beautiful weather. Tomorrows high is a perfect 75.
Gottta go for now, A mother job is never done.....
Keep your eyes to the sky!!
Jess
Cloud Stalker

Dry But beautiful

Temperature: 79.6 °F
Dew Point: 51.1 °F
Humidity: 37%
Wind Speed: 3.0mph
Wind Gust: 6.0mph - -
Wind: SE - - ESE
Pressure: 30.08in Precipitation: 0.00in
Time:4:31pm


Wow was my last post really in January, time flys. The weather here in west Pasco hasn't changed much. We have been stuck in a dry pattern for quite some time.
Yesterday we did receive some rain but it was only .27 It probably rolled right into the street my lawn is gone, so is everybody Else's in my neighborhood. It starting to look like a desert city.
Right now we have some nice puffy cumulus clouds going on blue skies and a awesome breeze from the east. Its hard to complain when the weather is so Beautiful.

I did a happy dance Knowing that the cold weather is gone for the year, I don't know how you northerners can stand all that cold but i get a little taste and I'm bitching.

What i really need to do is a rain dance, We are in a severe drought.

Rainfall deficit numbers just released by the Southwest Florida Water Management District show that on average the Bay area is already short nearly 6" of rain so far this year. That number combines with the ongoing drought to produce rainfall deficits for the region ranging from 27" to 33" over the past three years.

Source- 10connects.com
That's dry.
Our next best chance for rain arrives late Saturday evening and into Sunday as a cold front moves through. This could even produce a line of thunderstorms as well.
I'm keeping my fingers crossed on that one, I miss the sound of thunder.
well that's it for today and probably this month once the weather becomes more active so will my blogging. So if by any chance anyone reads this, don't forget to look up and enjoy Ma Nature at her best!
Jess
Cloud Stalker

Weekend weather

If your gonna be outside tomorrow your gonna really enjoy the day its gonna be beautiful! High around seventy five,seventy six. Southeast winds around 10 mph...becoming south in the afternoon. I'm gonna get up early tomorrow and clean my house so i can enjoy the outside in the afternoon.
Sunday the weather starts to change with a cold front moving in, their is a 30 percent chance of rain and the blue skies that you enjoyed on Saturday will be filled with clouds i enjoys so much. More chilly weather ahead It looks like Florida's winter has kicked in.
Have A great weekend!
Jess

Christmas rainbow

Yup just now getting this up. This was a very special Christmas and in the end we were rewarded with a beautiful rainbow.
I have been very busy lately and soon i will getting my blogging back up.
Weather has been pretty much the same for so long that there really was no need for an update.
We are getting our first cold front tonight since winter started. Its really not gonna get that cold, tonight lows in upper 40's tomorrow upper 60's for a high. which is chilly for us here Florida since we have been in the 80's for so long. That's a twenty degree difference. The rain we received today is the last chance till Sunday ,Monday and Tuesday and that is only a twenty percent chance. Its been real dry in our parts. Beautiful days even for someone like me to enjoy. Although I am missing the summer action.
I am not gonna make to the plains this year as see so far, But i am gonna try like heck to make to the sea breeze boundaries here in Florida. With or with out a camera.
No Santa didn't bring me a new camera. The shot i took of the rainbow was with old camera that barely works i surprised to get the shots I did.
any who gotta go for now. I will blog again for the weekend weather update.
Take care!
Jess
Cloud Stalker

Warm and beautiful! Ha Ha!

Florida is looking like paradise!
Yup I will rub it in, it is warm and beautiful! We do have a mild cold front moving in due to arrive Monday, with one day of chilly weather. The high in the 60's but Tuesday we quickly rebound and are back in the 70's once again.
Christmas is looking good as well, highs in the lower seventy's and a slight chance of precipitation.
I am missing the storm action,SSD I think it is- Severe Storm Deprivation.
Without a camera right now i guess its a good there is nothing going on. I really miss my camera and so wish for a new one but its not on the need list and the need list is a lot longer then the want list. I saw two beautiful sun dogs this week and i got to show them to my family who has never seen them before or if they did they didnt know what it was.
Its been rather crazy at my house, My husband was in the hospital and was out of work for a week and now he must go through life changes to insure his health. I pray his will is strong! With Christmas knocking on the doors of course i have been shopping which I hate. I know I am a girl I should love it but i dont. Not even a little bit. Our bosses at work were generous with a Christmas bonus this year which we were not expecting but will help out nicely. Kudos to The Blind King!

If I dont blog again before Christmas, Have A merry Christmas!
To all my friends: I love you guys and I hope This new year approaching will bring new and wonderful adventures!
P.S Dont forget to look up the sky is beautiful and should be appreciated on a daily basis!
Jess
Cloud Stalker

Possible severe weather for west Pasco Florida

Wha who! tomorrow is looking good for some severe weather!
Its been so long, I am so excited! Just saw this on NOAA....
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
TONIGHT THEN UP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF
WATERS EARLY ON SUNDAY THEN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL
WIND FIELDS AND STRONG UPWARD LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUGGESTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...
ISOLATED TORNADOES...OR MARINE WATERSPOUTS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS IF
ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.
I am going to borrow a friends camera, since I am still with out one. Depending on the time of its arrival i am hoping to catch it coming in off the water. If you happen to read this tonight keep you fingers crossed for me.

Ch Ch Chilly

This photo was taken when it was nice and warm outside but i thought the tree looked wintry.

Brrrrrrrrr Florida gets blasted with more cold air. Here in Port Richey its 50 degrees.
Which to you folks up north is nothing and i know you dont feel sorry for me. For me Brrrr and its gonna get colder tomorrow night.
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...THE COLD AND DRY AIRMASS OVER
FLORIDA WILL GET A REINFORCEMENT FROM THE NORTH AS ANOTHER SURGE
OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS
SECONDARY SURGE IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT.
This is Florida so you know by the weekend we will see highs back in the upper 70's.
I have yet another job, I left the restaurant world Just couldn't bare working nights anymore. That and some other issues i wont go into. I didn't miss a beat though, I was working at my new job the next day and get this folks I work Monday through Friday 7-330. Its a factory job but For my son, Being home for him is worth it.
All is well here, my kitty's are doing good still looking for a home for the white one hopefully soon having four cats is a handful. Well thats all the time i have its 8:00 and its to read to my son have a good night and if I don't see you later, Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening.
:@)
Jess
CloudStalker

Hurricane PALOMA

Yesterday about 530pm I was watching T.S. Paloma saying to myself damn that looks like a Hurricane to me, Great rotation, strong storms. At seven pm They indeed upgraded her.
Possibley the last hurricane of the season and it looks like the Grand Cayman might get a direct hit. It looks like Poor Cuba will also take another hit this season as well . A strong trough of low pressure approaching the U.S. East Coast is pulling Paloma to the north, and this trough should continue to pull the storm northwards and then turn it northeastward by Saturday. Florida is in the clear. Her is something intresting I read from Dr. Jeff Masters site:Historical note
This year and 2005 are the only seasons that we've had major hurricanes in the Atlantic in four separate months--July, August, September, and October. If Paloma becomes a major hurricane, it will make 2008 the first year since record keeping began in 1851 to feature major hurricanes in five separate months.
I wonder what next year will bring we seem to be breaking records each year.

Weather for us her in sunny Florida remains normal for this time of the year, nothing like the end of October where we had record breaking low temperatures. We do have a cold front approaching,

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH FLORIDA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GETS NUDGED INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY NOT REACH OUR NORTHERN
ZONES UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE A PRIMARILY DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
PICK UP A LITTLE BIT FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
CLEARING SKIES MAY EVEN MOVE INTO THE NATURE COAST BEFORE SUNSET.

IT WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR RAPIDLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
SETTLE INTO THE LOWER 40S OVER THE NATURE COAST...BUT REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE LOWER 50S OR SO OVER MOST OF INTERIOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

SUNDAY WILL BE A TYPICAL NOVEMBER DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND
MILD TEMPERATURES.

Sounds good to me!!!
If you noticed I have been blogging less, its because my little camera has finely went to camera heaven. I am without. I have no credit cards and no extra money to replace it. so until the camera fairy comes I will have no pictures to share. I am very bummed. very bummed. Oh Well I have a roof over my head and some food for our belly's so life goes on.
Have a great weekend!
Jess
Cloud Stalker

sky watch #18

Yup another sunset sky watch, I just cant help myself. We went to Port Richey waterfront park yesterday for dinner -Burgers and chips- And I took 87 pictures while I was there. My hub asks why I take so many pictures and I tell him today will be gone tomorrow but I have it forever at a touch of a button. Make sense? I think so.
Happy sky watching!!!
Jess
Sunset Stalker

Last weeks full moon

My simple version of the full moon last week. I should have grabbed my tripod but I was just sitting outside enjoying the night before I came inside I grabbed the camera and took a quick shot.

A perfect October morning today, right now its 70 degrees out with very mild breeze.
Our high today will be about 84. How perfect is that!
The disturbance out in the CARIBBEAN is not likely to devolop any further because it will encounter land, but heavy rain is expected.
Tropical moisture is due back in Florida come Thursday but NOAA is a little unsure what will happen with our rain chances."MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
TROUBLE RESOLVING THE EXACT LOCATION...TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
SYSTEMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THEY TRY TO
DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF/WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND MOVE IT ACROSS FLORIDA DURING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT DIFFERENCES ABOUND. DO THINK THAT THERE WILL BE A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHICH WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. WILL THEREFORE NOT MAKE ANY BIG CHANGES TO ONGOING
FORECAST AND LEAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY."
We are encountering the beginning of our dry season, which blows because we didn't get enough rain here this summer. The beginning of the summer was great nice and wet but the second half went dry. We have sand spurs everywhere.Which blows even more because I hate wearing shoes.( I am a true Florida girl)
Well thats for me no rain chances till Thursday night just blue skies and a nice breeze. I guess I can live with that.
Jess
Cloud Stalker

sky watch/Fair-weather clouds

.


Fair Weather Cumulus Clouds
Fair weather cumulus have the appearance of floating cotton and have a lifetime of 5-40 minutes. Known for their flat bases and distinct outlines, fair weather cumulus exhibit only slight vertical growth, with the cloud tops designating the limit of the rising air. Given suitable conditions, however, harmless fair weather cumulus can later develop into towering cumulonimbus clouds associated with powerful thunderstorms.

Fair weather cumulus are fueled by buoyant bubbles of air, or thermals, that rise upward from the earth's surface. As they rise, the water vapor within cools and condenses forming cloud droplets. Young fair weather cumulus have sharply defined edges and bases while the edges of older clouds appear more ragged, an artifact of cloud erosion. Evaporation along the cloud edges cools the surrounding air, making it heavier and producing sinking motion (or subsidence) outside the cloud.

Source


This will be my 17th Sky watch, wow. I look forward to this all week. This weeks pics are from Sunday, my son and I went on a nice long bike ride which ended up in a new park they built out side of our neighborhood. I got a lot of cool shots if you scroll down a little you will see a couple I posted.
I just Love the sky!

Thank you for stopping in Happy sky watching!
Jess
Cloud Stalker

Having fun at the playground

Tropical Depression SIXTEEN

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS REPLACED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHERN BELIZE WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE HONDURAS COAST FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA/HONDURAS BORDER
AS WELL AS THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
GUATEMALA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST
OR ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM...EAST OF LIMON HONDURAS AND ABOUT 270
MILES...430 KM...EAST OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY NEAR
THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...NORTHERN HONDURAS...
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
UP TO 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

HURRICANE OMAR

Hurricane Omar Discussion Number 8

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on October 15, 2008





An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft reports that there has been
no appreciable strengthening of Omar over the past few hours. An
elliptical and partially open eye was observed but the inner core
is not yet well-defined. The central pressure has not fallen and
maximum SFMR-observed surface wind speeds have been near 65
kt...which is used for the advisory intensity. Satellite images
show that Omar continues to generate very deep convection with a
large area of cloud tops colder than -80 deg c. Upper-level
outflow is well-established over the eastern semicircle and
restricted to the west...as westerly shear continues to impact the
hurricane. However...the shear is not expected to be strong enough
to prevent strengthening. The official intensity forecast is the
same as the previous one and a little above the model consensus.
By day 5...global models depict the cyclone interacting with a
strong baroclinic zone over the North Atlantic so the official
forecast shows Omar becoming extratropical by that time.

Initial motion is around 050/6. There has not been much change to
the official forecast track or reasoning. A mid-level trough to
the north of the hurricane along with a ridge to the east is
creating a southwesterly steering current and Omar is expected to
continue northeastward with a gradual increase in forward speed.
The forward motion slows a little around day 3 as the trough lifts
out ahead of Omar. The system should accelerate again near the end
of the period as it encounters the main branch of the mid-latitude
westerlies. Dynamical track prediction models are tightly
clustered...especially for the first 24 hours and the official
forecast is close to the model consensus albeit a little slower.
This is slightly faster than the previous forecast...but more or
less along the same trajectory.

Although the official forecast keeps the center east of Puerto
Rico...a deviation to the left of the current motion could require
changing the Hurricane Watch to a Hurricane Warning for that
island. I will pray that dosnt happen.

A view from a bike ride

Its a boy/Omar is borm

Tropical storm Omar is born, but it doesn't look to be a threat for the USA. I will have More information as it becomes available.

Tropical action/Nana downgraded

My goodness will you look at that the tropic's are having a party and it didn"t invite me.
#1 is in a nice loving environment for its kind, but it will be heading to shore soon.
Perhaps as a depression, i don't think it will be over water long enough to become any more then a great rain maker for portions of Nicaragua,Honduras and Belize.
#2 See that baby blob under Mama blob Nana, yup thats it with the yellow circle around it. That little guy or gurl is gonna encounter unfavorable winds here in the next couple of days, NOAA isn't holding its breathe on this one.
poor mama blob Nana is coming to an end, she is being sheared to death. I dont know how much longer she can hang on.
Now Tropical depression 15 is a little bit more complicated:THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FOUND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 34 KT FROM 925 MB...WHICH DOES NOT
SUPPORT AN UPGRADE TO A TROPICAL STORM. THERE WERE SFMR WINDS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE...BUT IN RAINY CONDITIONS THIS WIND SPEED
RANGE IS NOT WHERE THE INSTRUMENT PERFORMS BEST. THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME
WESTERLY SHEAR STILL EVIDENT IN INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN IN WHAT SHOULD BE A
MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE GFDL
AND HWRF BOTH MAKING THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE BEFORE IT EXITS THE
CARIBBEAN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

THERE IS VERY LITTLE SURROUNDING MID-LEVEL FLOW AND THE DEPRESSION
IS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY. A LARGE UPPER-LOW EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
IS DRIVING SOUTHWARD IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD IN
ANOTHER 24-36 HOURS. COMPARED TO SIX HOURS AGO THE GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED WESTWARD...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE CYCLONE
WILL BE CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LOW. A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS NOW
SHOW THE CYCLONE BEING LEFT BEHIND BY THIS FEATURE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT AT THE LONGER RANGES AND IS
IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. THE HWRF AND GFDL ARE MUCH
SLOWER BRINGING THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CONSEQUENTLY
ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE LEFT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
See what I mean, But It sure does look like this one will be named by as early as tomorrow. As always I will be watching for any continuing development.Its late now or very early how every you look at I'm getting goofy and should head off to bed.
Good night.
Jess cloud Stalker
view from a bike ride Sunday.

Tropical Storm Nana/98L

Nana remains in an environment of strong westerly shear and the
low-cloud center is displaced well to the west of the main blob of
deep convection. An ascat pass from 2332 UTC measured 30-35 kt
winds over the northeast quadrant of the cyclone. Given the
disorganization of the system it is possible that...since the time
of that overpass...Nana may have weakened below tropical storm
strength. However...because of the uncertainties...I will maintain
the intensity at 35 kt for now. The global model's 200 mb wind
forecasts shows 25-30 kt westerly winds over the area for the next
36 hours or so...so we do not expect the shear to lessen
significantly in the near future. Nana will likely weaken and
degenerate into a remnant low within 24 hours.

Initial motion is estimated to be 285/6. Nana or its remnant should
continue this general motion while situated to south-southwest of a
low- to mid-level high pressure ridge over the eastern Atlantic.
The official forecast track...like the previous one...is on the
south side of the guidance envelope and leans toward the shallow
BAM track...albeit not quite as fast as that guidance.
98L

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 275
MILES SOUTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY WINDS AND A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAINS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND A
PORTION OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.