Cloud Stalker: Summer is gone an autumn is here

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Summer is gone an autumn is here

It feels like fall is in the air, nice breeze and what i thought was dryer air. The humity is still at 85% which if you felt the air here you would be surprized too. Dry air is moving in and tonight our low goes down to a nice 71 degrees. I wonder if i will be able to convince hubby to turn off the ac tonight. Yesterday we should of saw some rain with the blob that was out in the gulf but as usual it went north and south of us and all we got here was a couple of sprinkles. Today the rain will mostly be south of Pasco...of course. 93L still hasn't changed much but NOAA is saying it could become a depression any day now. This will not effect Florida,here is a look at the spaghetti models.

Looks like this could be a fish storm.
Or not.
This is from Dr.Jeff Master wonder blog:
The track forecast
The models agree on a slow west-northwesterly motion for 93L today, with a turn to the northwest or north-northwest on Tuesday. An extratropical storm is expected to develop off the coast of South Carolina by Wednesday, and five of our six reliable models predict that 93L and the extratropical storm will rotate cyclonically around a common center (the Fujiwhara effect), sending 93L hurtling into the U.S. East Coast on Friday somewhere between North Carolina and Massachusetts. The outlier is the UKMET model, which predicts that 93L will absorb the energy that would have gone into creating the extratropical low. This might convert 93L into a hybrid subtropical storm that would affect the coast of North and South Carolina late this week with sustained winds in the 50-60 mph range. Considering that we are trying to forecast a complicated interaction between two storms that have yet to form, the current model forecasts for 93L are highly uncertain. Residents along the entire U.S. East Coast from Georgia to Maine should anticipate the possibility of a strong tropical storm affecting them by Friday.Wow!
I love his Blog he is such a smart man. for some reason I cant insert links right now but his blog is to the left. Thats it for me, have a great day!
Jess
Cloud Stalker

2 comments:

Dewdrop said...: I don't think the fish possibility is being too highly considered by folks. I think the east coast should definitely be mindful of this one.; September 23, 2008 at 11:26 AM
CloudStalker said...: I agree, after reading Dr.masters blog. We will have to see.; September 23, 2008 at 3:08 PM

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HAIL (3/4 inch or greater)

Hail can cause significant damage to your vehicle, break windows and damage roofs of homes and businesses.
Hail can cause significant bodily injuries such as broken bones and even blindness if wind blown.
Softball (4.5 inches) sized hail was reported in Lake Wales, Florida on March 30, 1996.
Haildrifts, up to four feet deep of dime to nickel sized hail, occurred in low-lying areas near Zephyrhills, Florida on January 29, 1997.
Hailstones the size of softballs can fall at speeds faster than 100 mph

supercell

Supercells derive their rotation through tilting of horizontal vorticity (an invisible horizontal vortex) caused by wind shear. Strong updrafts lift the air turning about a horizontal axis and cause this air to turn about a vertical axis. This forms the deep rotating updraft, the mesocyclone.
A cap or capping inversion is usually required to form a downdraft of sufficient strength. The cap puts an inverted (warm-above-cold) layer above a normal (cold-above-warm) boundary layer, and by preventing warm surface air from sinking too far, allows one or both of the following:
Air below the cap warms and/or becomes more moist
Air above the cap cools
This creates a warmer, moister layer below a cooler layer, which is increasingly unstable (because warm air is less dense and tends to rise). When the cap weakens or moves, explosive development follows.
In North America, supercells usually show up on Doppler radar as starting at a point or hook shape on the southwestern side, fanning out to the northeast. The heaviest precipitation is usually on the southwest side, ending abruptly short of the rain-free updraft base or main updraft (not visible to radar). The rear flank downdraft, or RFD, carries precipitation counterclockwise around the north and northwest side of the updraft base, producing a "hook echo" that indicates the presence of a mesocyclone.