sky watch #18

Yup another sunset sky watch, I just cant help myself. We went to Port Richey waterfront park yesterday for dinner -Burgers and chips- And I took 87 pictures while I was there. My hub asks why I take so many pictures and I tell him today will be gone tomorrow but I have it forever at a touch of a button. Make sense? I think so.
Happy sky watching!!!
Jess
Sunset Stalker

Last weeks full moon

My simple version of the full moon last week. I should have grabbed my tripod but I was just sitting outside enjoying the night before I came inside I grabbed the camera and took a quick shot.

A perfect October morning today, right now its 70 degrees out with very mild breeze.
Our high today will be about 84. How perfect is that!
The disturbance out in the CARIBBEAN is not likely to devolop any further because it will encounter land, but heavy rain is expected.
Tropical moisture is due back in Florida come Thursday but NOAA is a little unsure what will happen with our rain chances."MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
TROUBLE RESOLVING THE EXACT LOCATION...TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
SYSTEMS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THEY TRY TO
DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF/WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND MOVE IT ACROSS FLORIDA DURING FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BUT DIFFERENCES ABOUND. DO THINK THAT THERE WILL BE A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHICH WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. WILL THEREFORE NOT MAKE ANY BIG CHANGES TO ONGOING
FORECAST AND LEAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY."
We are encountering the beginning of our dry season, which blows because we didn't get enough rain here this summer. The beginning of the summer was great nice and wet but the second half went dry. We have sand spurs everywhere.Which blows even more because I hate wearing shoes.( I am a true Florida girl)
Well thats for me no rain chances till Thursday night just blue skies and a nice breeze. I guess I can live with that.
Jess
Cloud Stalker

sky watch/Fair-weather clouds

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Fair Weather Cumulus Clouds
Fair weather cumulus have the appearance of floating cotton and have a lifetime of 5-40 minutes. Known for their flat bases and distinct outlines, fair weather cumulus exhibit only slight vertical growth, with the cloud tops designating the limit of the rising air. Given suitable conditions, however, harmless fair weather cumulus can later develop into towering cumulonimbus clouds associated with powerful thunderstorms.

Fair weather cumulus are fueled by buoyant bubbles of air, or thermals, that rise upward from the earth's surface. As they rise, the water vapor within cools and condenses forming cloud droplets. Young fair weather cumulus have sharply defined edges and bases while the edges of older clouds appear more ragged, an artifact of cloud erosion. Evaporation along the cloud edges cools the surrounding air, making it heavier and producing sinking motion (or subsidence) outside the cloud.

Source


This will be my 17th Sky watch, wow. I look forward to this all week. This weeks pics are from Sunday, my son and I went on a nice long bike ride which ended up in a new park they built out side of our neighborhood. I got a lot of cool shots if you scroll down a little you will see a couple I posted.
I just Love the sky!

Thank you for stopping in Happy sky watching!
Jess
Cloud Stalker

Having fun at the playground

Tropical Depression SIXTEEN

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS REPLACED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHERN BELIZE WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE HONDURAS COAST FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA/HONDURAS BORDER
AS WELL AS THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
GUATEMALA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST
OR ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM...EAST OF LIMON HONDURAS AND ABOUT 270
MILES...430 KM...EAST OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY NEAR
THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...NORTHERN HONDURAS...
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
UP TO 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

HURRICANE OMAR

Hurricane Omar Discussion Number 8

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on October 15, 2008





An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft reports that there has been
no appreciable strengthening of Omar over the past few hours. An
elliptical and partially open eye was observed but the inner core
is not yet well-defined. The central pressure has not fallen and
maximum SFMR-observed surface wind speeds have been near 65
kt...which is used for the advisory intensity. Satellite images
show that Omar continues to generate very deep convection with a
large area of cloud tops colder than -80 deg c. Upper-level
outflow is well-established over the eastern semicircle and
restricted to the west...as westerly shear continues to impact the
hurricane. However...the shear is not expected to be strong enough
to prevent strengthening. The official intensity forecast is the
same as the previous one and a little above the model consensus.
By day 5...global models depict the cyclone interacting with a
strong baroclinic zone over the North Atlantic so the official
forecast shows Omar becoming extratropical by that time.

Initial motion is around 050/6. There has not been much change to
the official forecast track or reasoning. A mid-level trough to
the north of the hurricane along with a ridge to the east is
creating a southwesterly steering current and Omar is expected to
continue northeastward with a gradual increase in forward speed.
The forward motion slows a little around day 3 as the trough lifts
out ahead of Omar. The system should accelerate again near the end
of the period as it encounters the main branch of the mid-latitude
westerlies. Dynamical track prediction models are tightly
clustered...especially for the first 24 hours and the official
forecast is close to the model consensus albeit a little slower.
This is slightly faster than the previous forecast...but more or
less along the same trajectory.

Although the official forecast keeps the center east of Puerto
Rico...a deviation to the left of the current motion could require
changing the Hurricane Watch to a Hurricane Warning for that
island. I will pray that dosnt happen.

A view from a bike ride

Its a boy/Omar is borm

Tropical storm Omar is born, but it doesn't look to be a threat for the USA. I will have More information as it becomes available.

Tropical action/Nana downgraded

My goodness will you look at that the tropic's are having a party and it didn"t invite me.
#1 is in a nice loving environment for its kind, but it will be heading to shore soon.
Perhaps as a depression, i don't think it will be over water long enough to become any more then a great rain maker for portions of Nicaragua,Honduras and Belize.
#2 See that baby blob under Mama blob Nana, yup thats it with the yellow circle around it. That little guy or gurl is gonna encounter unfavorable winds here in the next couple of days, NOAA isn't holding its breathe on this one.
poor mama blob Nana is coming to an end, she is being sheared to death. I dont know how much longer she can hang on.
Now Tropical depression 15 is a little bit more complicated:THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FOUND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 34 KT FROM 925 MB...WHICH DOES NOT
SUPPORT AN UPGRADE TO A TROPICAL STORM. THERE WERE SFMR WINDS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE...BUT IN RAINY CONDITIONS THIS WIND SPEED
RANGE IS NOT WHERE THE INSTRUMENT PERFORMS BEST. THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME
WESTERLY SHEAR STILL EVIDENT IN INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN IN WHAT SHOULD BE A
MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE GFDL
AND HWRF BOTH MAKING THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE BEFORE IT EXITS THE
CARIBBEAN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

THERE IS VERY LITTLE SURROUNDING MID-LEVEL FLOW AND THE DEPRESSION
IS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY. A LARGE UPPER-LOW EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
IS DRIVING SOUTHWARD IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD IN
ANOTHER 24-36 HOURS. COMPARED TO SIX HOURS AGO THE GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED WESTWARD...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE CYCLONE
WILL BE CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LOW. A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS NOW
SHOW THE CYCLONE BEING LEFT BEHIND BY THIS FEATURE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT AT THE LONGER RANGES AND IS
IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. THE HWRF AND GFDL ARE MUCH
SLOWER BRINGING THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CONSEQUENTLY
ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE LEFT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
See what I mean, But It sure does look like this one will be named by as early as tomorrow. As always I will be watching for any continuing development.Its late now or very early how every you look at I'm getting goofy and should head off to bed.
Good night.
Jess cloud Stalker
view from a bike ride Sunday.

Tropical Storm Nana/98L

Nana remains in an environment of strong westerly shear and the
low-cloud center is displaced well to the west of the main blob of
deep convection. An ascat pass from 2332 UTC measured 30-35 kt
winds over the northeast quadrant of the cyclone. Given the
disorganization of the system it is possible that...since the time
of that overpass...Nana may have weakened below tropical storm
strength. However...because of the uncertainties...I will maintain
the intensity at 35 kt for now. The global model's 200 mb wind
forecasts shows 25-30 kt westerly winds over the area for the next
36 hours or so...so we do not expect the shear to lessen
significantly in the near future. Nana will likely weaken and
degenerate into a remnant low within 24 hours.

Initial motion is estimated to be 285/6. Nana or its remnant should
continue this general motion while situated to south-southwest of a
low- to mid-level high pressure ridge over the eastern Atlantic.
The official forecast track...like the previous one...is on the
south side of the guidance envelope and leans toward the shallow
BAM track...albeit not quite as fast as that guidance.
98L

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 275
MILES SOUTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY WINDS AND A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAINS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND A
PORTION OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

Sky Watch Friday/What Determines Sky's Colors At Sunrise And Sunset?

Sky Watch Friday is hosted by:Tom, Sandy, IMAC , Klaus & Ivar. For a free trip around the world to see the skies click HERE.





What Determines Sky's Colors At Sunrise And Sunset?
ScienceDaily (Nov. 15, 2007) — The colors of the sunset result from a phenomenon called scattering, says Steven Ackerman, professor of meteorology at UW-Madison. Molecules and small particles in the atmosphere change the direction of light rays, causing them to scatter.



Scattering affects the color of light coming from the sky, but the details are determined by the wavelength of the light and the size of the particle. The short-wavelength blue and violet are scattered by molecules in the air much more than other colors of the spectrum. This is why blue and violet light reaches our eyes from all directions on a clear day. But because we can't see violet very well, the sky appears blue.

Scattering also explains the colors of the sunrise and sunset, Ackerman says.


“Because the sun is low on the horizon, sunlight passes through more air at sunset and sunrise than during the day, when the sun is higher in the sky. More atmosphere means more molecules to scatter the violet and blue light away from your eyes. If the path is long enough, all of the blue and violet light scatters out of your line of sight. The other colors continue on their way to your eyes. This is why sunsets are often yellow, orange, and red.”

And because red has the longest wavelength of any visible light, the sun is red when it’s on the horizon, where its extremely long path through the atmosphere blocks all other colors.





SOURCE
I hope everyone has a great weekend and have a great time sky watching!!!
Jess
Cloud Stalker

Love that INSTABILITY !

This was The beginning of a two hour rain event. I was even honored with thunder. I missed that sound. I don't think we had one storm in September. It wasn't nothing to brag about but it helped.We might even get some more today.
DISCUSSION...AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY (PW`S ~2"/LI`S -4C) VIA 12Z
RAOB DATA COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD AGAIN HELP TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH AN EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ALBEIT LIGHT FAVORING THE GREATEST STORM
COVERAGE AND HIGHEST POPS ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY SLOW STORM MOTION WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME LOCATIONS. A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF CONVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS THROUGHOUT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S
EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO MORNING
UPDATE PLANNED.
Here's to hoping!!
Jess
Cloud Stalker

TROPICAL STORM MARCO

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132008
700 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2008

...MARCO EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL LATER TODAY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
CABO ROJO SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARCO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST OR ABOUT 80
MILES...125 KM...SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

MARCO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARCO SHOULD MOVE INLAND WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...AND MARCO
COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST.

MARCO IS AN EXTREMELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ONLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

MARCO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES... WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICAN STATES OF NORTHERN VERACRUZ...NORTHERN
PUEBLA... HILDALGO...AND SAN LUIS POTOSI.

Sun Halo-Skywatch Friday

Sky Watch Friday is hosted by:Tom, Sandy, IMAC , Klaus & Ivar
For a free trip around the world to see the skies just click on the link.







A halo (ἅλως; also known as a nimbus, icebow or Gloriole) is an optical phenomenon that appears near or around the Sun or Moon, and sometimes near other strong light sources such as street lights. There are many types of optical halos, but they are mostly caused by ice crystals in cold cirrus clouds located high (5–10 km, or 3–6 miles) in the upper troposphere. The particular shape and orientation of the crystals is responsible for the type of halo observed. Light is reflected and refracted by the ice crystals and may split up into colors because of dispersion, similarly to the rainbow.

Sometimes in very cold weather optical halos are formed by crystals close to ground level, called diamond dust. The crystals behave like jewels, refracting and reflecting sunlight between their faces, sending shafts of light in particular directions.

Atmospheric phenomena such as halos were used as an empirical means of weather forecasting before meteorology was developed.

Other common optical phenomena involving water droplets rather than ice crystals include the glory and the rainbow. SOURCE

This photo was taken in July of '07. I have featured this photo before in this blog, but I thought I would share it with the sky watchers.
I started a new blog yesterday called Silly Me I started it because in these hard times everybody needs a smile. So each day I am posting a joke from all the fwrds I get in my email box.If you have a funny joke or a funny picture you would like to share with me you can send it to my email @ cloudstalker.jess@yahoo.com.
Have a fantastic day!!
Peace and Love!!
Jess
Cloud Stalker

Cloud stalker

This picture was taken a couple days ago, The sky was teasing us with rain.

Nothing new today weather wise, Dry air will be filling the state and beautiful weather will stick around for the next couple of days. I started a a couple new blogs, I wanted to share more of me and who I am. You can find the links on the top left hand side of my blog. I will be adding more as the ideas come to me.
Have a happy day!
Jess
Cloud Stalker