Cloud Stalking

Hurricane Dolly makes land fall

What a beautiful storm 94L grew up to be. Now Dolly, she smashed ashore on the South Texas coast on Padre Island early this afternoon, bringing 100 mph winds and a storm surge of 6-8 feet to the coast. The southern edge of the eyewall is now battering Harlingen, where sustained winds of 56 mph, gusting to 74 mph, have been observed. Reports from the Hurricane Hunters show that Dolly's pressure is now rising, and radar imagery out of Brownsville, Texas confirms that the storm is starting to weaken. Visible satellite loops show the eye is starting to deteriorate, though Dolly still looks plenty impressive.

This is usally my day off, but I had to work today so i missed the actual landfall.
oh well i have a feeling i will have another chance.

97L isnt looking impressive right now as it passes over cooler waters, but it still has a nice spin to it. I will keep a closer eye on this weekend as it moves into warmer waters.
Jess
Cloud Stalker

HURRICANE DOLLY

Radar loop of Hurricane Dolly

Hurricane Dolly has become the second hurricane of the 2008 hurricane season. Dolly is barely a hurricane, and is still struggling to build a complete eyewall. Visible satellite loops show an eye developing, and heavy thunderstorm activity continues to increase near the core of the storm. Dolly has good upper-level outflow to the west and north, but restricted on the south side, where an upper level low pressure system is still interfering. Maximum surface winds measured by the SFMR instrument on the current Hurricane Hunter aircraft inside Dolly were 74 mph (65 kt), measured at 4:17 pm EDT. Brownsville, Texas long-range radar shows the eyewall is complete on Dolly's west side, but is struggling to get established on the east side. Radar estimated rainfall amounts of 1/10 of an inch have fallen on the Texas/Mexico coast so far, thanks to the outermost spiral bands of Dolly.


The intensification potential for Dolly remains high, but until Dolly can form a full eyewall, it won't be able to take full advantage of the favorable environment. Wind shear over Dolly is about five knots, and is expected to remain below ten knots over the next two days. An upper level high pressure system is moving into place over the storm, which should enhance Dolly's upper-level outflow and allow more rapid intensification. Dolly is over waters of 29°C. The waters cool to about 28°C by midnight tonight as Dolly approaches the coast and passes over a cool ocean eddy. The depth of the warm waters Dolly is over has decreased, and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential has fallen from about 40 to 20 kJ/cm**2. This decreases the potential of rapid intensification. Our skill in making intensity forecasts is poor, but it currently appears that Dolly only has enough time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane. A Category 2 hurricane still a possibility, though. The track forecast
The track forecast has changed little since this morning, with the various computer models predicting pretty much the same behavior as they did 12 hours ago. Four models are predicting a landfall in northeastern Mexico--the UKMET, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and GFS--and two models are predicting a Texas landfall--the GFDL (just north of Brownsville) and the HWRF (near Corpus Christi). Dolly could come ashore anywhere within the cone of uncertainty, and one should not assume the storm will track down the "skinny black line" NHC has drawn through their official forecast. The timing of Dolly's landfall, as predicted by the computer models, will be anywhere from 8 am - 10 pm Wednesday. However, the GFS and ECMWF hint that Dolly may stall out right by the coast Wednesday, and some slow and erratic motion is possible tomorrow before the storm finally comes ashore.
SOURCE

From NOAA
500 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

DOLLY IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED BY THE NWS RADAR FROM
BROWNSVILLE...NOAA BUOYS..SATELLITE AND VERY IMPORTANTLY...BY AN
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT. THE RADAR IS MEASURING 75
KNOTS AT ABOUT 20 THOUSAND FEET AND SHOW NUMEROUS RAINBANDS ALREADY
APPROACHING THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.
DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT DOLLY IS A HURRICANE AND WIND DATA
JUST RECEIVED FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAVE CONFIRMED IT.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS 65 KNOTS. WITH THE PREVAILING LOW
SHEAR...DOLLY IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST A LITTLE BIT STRONGER.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS.
THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
SMALL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF DOLLY
SHOULD BE NEAR THE US/MEXICO BORDER WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. DOLLY IS LARGE CYCLONE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. AFTER LANDFALL...DOLLY
SHOULD TURN MORE TO WEST AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING THE CORE OF DOLLY INLAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE
RE-EMPHASIZED THAT...DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES...ONE MUST
NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL POINT IN THIS FORECAST.

DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION AT LANDFALL...DOLLY COULD DUMP VERY HEAVY
RAINS IN THE AREA.

Tropical storm Dolly update

500 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

THE STRUCTURE OF DOLLY APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING VERY GRADUAL
CHANGES. THE OUTERMOST CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING
TODAY...WHILE CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWLY ON THE INCREASE NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS NOW MUCH
SMALLER...AS DETERMINED FROM STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER
DATA THAT RECENTLY INDICATED A MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND OF 45 KT ABOUT
45 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. DOLLY IS HEADED TOWARD A RELATIVE
MAXIMUM IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...AND IT IS BENEATH A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT COVERS NEARLY THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. IT SEEMS TO BE TAKING A WHILE...HOWEVER...FOR AN INNER
CORE TO BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE...SO IT IS RATHER UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH
DOLLY WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ITS ENVIRONMENT. ALL OF THE INTENSITY
MODELS FORECAST AN UPWARD INTENSITY TREND UNTIL FINAL
LANDFALL...BUT THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING.
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS FORECAST ABOUT 65 KT IN 48 HOURS...WHILE
THE GFDL IS A LITTLE HIGHER AT 75-80 KT. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS SO CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
AGAIN LEANS TOWARD THE HIGHER GFDL SOLUTION. ANOTHER COMPLICATION
IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT KNOWING EXACTLY HOW FAST DOLLY
WILL REACH THE COAST. IF IT MAKES LANDFALL SOONER THAN THE
OFFICIAL TRACK INDICATES...IT MIGHT RUN OUT OF TIME TO REACH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY. BUT IF THE OPPOSITE
OCCURS...DOLLY WOULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE TIME OVER THE WARM WATERS.

DOLLY CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
REMAINS 300/16. WHILE IT IS A LITTLE UNNERVING TO OBSERVE THIS FAST
MOTION AND FORECAST THE CENTER OF DOLLY TO TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO
REACH THE COAST...ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INSIST THAT THE
FORWARD SPEED WILL BE ABOUT HALF ITS CURRENT VALUE BY TOMORROW
NIGHT. THE MODELS AGREE SURPRISINGLY WELL ON THE SLOW-DOWN...SO
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...IN TERMS OF FORWARD SPEED...IS RIGHT
IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE MODELS DO NOT GO INLAND IN
EXACTLY THE SAME LOCATIONS...HOWEVER. THE GFS AND UKMET FORECAST
DOLLY TO CROSS THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...WHILE THE GFDL
AND HWRF TRACKS GO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS...GIVING RESPECT TO THE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NWS HURRICANE MODELS...THE GFDL AND HWRF.
THIS NEW TRACK IS NOT MEANINGFULLY DIFFERENT THAN THE PREVIOUS
ONE...EXCEPT TO BE A LITTLE FASTER. IT IS AGAIN IMPORTANT TO
EMPHASIZE THAT...WITH RELIABLE MODELS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE OFFICIAL
TRACK...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL LOCATION IMPLIED
BY THE OFFICIAL TRACK.

WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE AND
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREAS LATER TONIGHT.

Hello Dolly!!

DOLLY HEADING TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST OR ABOUT 220
MILES...350 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 165 MILES...265
KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A
NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO TONIGHT...EMERGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF ON TUESDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BEFORE DOLLY
REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTER DOLLY EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TONIGHT.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4
INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF UP
TO 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...18.9 N...85.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL

000
WTNT33 KNHC 191808
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008

...CRISTOBAL FORMS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...LIKELY TO
STRENGTHEN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING
PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES...160 KM...EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 225
MILES...365 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
RECENTLY MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...32.8 N...78.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

Sky Watch

Happy Sky Watch Everybody!! A Big Hello from Pasco, Florida I am located on the west coast right in the center of the state. If you want to take a trip around the world come and register a the sky watch blog
This has been a fun weather week for me. It has rained every day in fact we have received just about 8 inches of rain since last Saturday. I took some in between the rain shots This week I hope you enjoy them! Have a great weekend!!!









Jess
Cloud Stalker

Even more rain for florida

You know I love it when i am right about the weather. Yesterday I was watching the satellite of the gulf and i said to myself, that's gonna be something and when i woke up this morning and turned on the news the weather chick was calling it a non tropical low and NOAA has it marked as an invest. Of course its not gonna be more then it is because of land right in its path but its nice to know i still have my instincts. I got a text from dewdrop this morning telling me how lucky i am. I replied Hee Hee i know. Such weather geeks we are.
Her is a recent satellite picture./



Invest 94 got its act up a little last night, enough for then to send an air force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft into it. Not a threat they said yesterday, I knew it was one to keep an eye on as a matter of fact i will be keeping on on it until it is no more.
I am going to try to get to the coast today to see if there is any action aka water spouts. Right now here in pasco we have a complete grey coverage and there is no wind movement at all. We got a large amount rain last night and we are close to 8 inches from Saturday. That's a lot rain folks. I am also gonna try to get out and take pictures of are over flowing rain reservoirs. Cross your fingers for me i am with out a car right now so things are not as easy as they once were.
Ta Tafor now...
Jess
Cloud Stalker

Lots of rain for pasco Florida

Sunday morning delivered heavy rainfall to Pasco County. Showers developed at 10:45 pm Saturday night and began dumping showers into southwestern Pasco County. They began reporting the potential flooding problems at 11:00 pm for our area. Some of the heavy rain spread into northern and central Pinellas County Sunday morning.

Many of weather spotters reported as much as 7 inches of rain across Pasco County. Residents in Largo, Seminole and Clearwater reported as much as 2-3 inches of rainfall.

Here are some totals from the Saturday/Sunday storms.

New Port Richey 6.06"
Port Richey 6.50"
Hudson 2.81"
Palm Harbor 2,67"
Largo 3,92

The rainfall was so heavy that many roads and neighborhoods could not handle that much rain in such a short period of time. These types of rain events can often be more destructive than a tropical storm or even a small hurricane.
It rained yesterday morning and this morning we awoke to even more rain. I took this picture at 645am
It looks like tonight and tomorrow morning has great potential for more rain.






Tropical Storm Bertha is out over the open Atlantic Ocean after battering Bermuda and indirectly causing one U.S. death.
The storm knocked out electricity to thousands of customers on the British tourist island.
Bermuda's weather service canceled a hurricane watch for the island late yesterday but a tropical storm watch remains in effect. There have been no reports of injuries.
Ron Smith is a carpenter who moved to Bermuda about a year ago from the English city of Stoke-on-Trent. He describes the broad storm's passage as “harrowing.”
The storm has whipped up dangerous rip currents along the U.S. East Coast from the Carolinas through southern New England. That's contributed to at least one drowning off a New Jersey beach.

Bertha is expected to re-strengthen into a hurricane today. Maximum sustained winds are currently 70-miles-per-hour.



Invest 94 is weakening and they are no longer considering it a threat.

I how ever will still be keeping an eye on it!
Ta Ta for now..
Jess
Cloud Stalker

BERTHA STILL A VIGOROUS TROPICAL STORM

000
WTNT32 KNHC 132026
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM AST SUN JUL 13 2008

...BERTHA STILL A VIGOROUS TROPICAL STORM...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST OR ABOUT 175
MILES...285 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA HAS BEEN MEANDERING SINCE YESTERDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT A
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR SHOULD FINALLY
BEGIN TONIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PASS NOT FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF
BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS
990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BERMUDA
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...30.2 N...63.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

Sky Watch

Waves in the sky



Join sky watch by registering at Tom Wigely blog
Have A great weekend to all!!!
Jess Cloud Stalker

Hurricane Bertha

Hurricane Bertha continues trundling along towards Bermuda, but is not in a hurry to get there. The storm has a rather sloppy appearance on satellite loops, thanks to the fact that the eyewall dissolved last night, with a new, much larger eye taking its place. Bertha will probably start to intensify today now that this Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC) is done. Wind shear is low (less than 10 knots) and water temperatures are warm (28°C). Shear if forecast to remain below 10 knots until Sunday, but the water temperatures will gradually cool to 26°C by the time Bertha reaches Bermuda's latitude on Sunday. Intensification back to Category 2 status seems probable, and Bertha still has an outside chance at reaching Category 3 status again. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters will make their first flight into Bertha this afternoon to check on the storm's strength.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST OR ABOUT 310 MILES...
500 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...
BERTHA'S FRINGES WILL BE NEARING BERMUDA ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRPLANE IS SCHEDULED
TO CHECK BERTHA LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...28.5 N...62.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

Jess
Cloud Stalker

Hurricane Bertha

Hurricane Bertha is back at Category 2 status, and appears destined to become one of the longest-lasting July hurricanes on record. Hurricane Emily of 2005 spent seven full days at hurricane strength in July, which I believe is the record. Bertha is halfway there. The storm is in no hurry to recurve out to sea, and will spend 3-4 more days over waters warm enough to maintain it at hurricane intensity.
She sure has been fun to watch, I can honestly say. She is no threat to anyone yet, but Bermuda needs to keep an eyes this storm.

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM AST THU JUL 10 2008

...BERTHA STILL A NORTHWESTWARD-MOVING CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...

IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXTENT TO WHICH BERTHA COULD
IMPACT BERMUDA. INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF BERTHA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.8 WEST OR ABOUT 425 MILES...
685 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH BERMUDA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...
140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF HAVE STARTED TO AFFECTED BERMUDA. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...27.2 N...60.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

Jess
Cloud Stalker

Summer storms

What a show we had here in the last couple evenings, It seems the the fourth of July is still going on only God is the one putting on the show. I have been trying like heck to capture a lightning shot but my camera just sucks! It just wont take rapid shots, what can u expect from a 150.00 dollar camera. I have a tripod now but it doesnt help i have tried everything. I can get sky shots at least i have that.



It looks like another round for tonight DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH A VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAIN...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE
HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING
AREAS. AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
I am think about going to rent a center to rent a better camera I really want a lightnig shot!!! I am a gold star member with them so i can rent anything i want for a week for no charge, I just might have to take advantage of that.
Untill next time keep yor eyes tot the sky!
Jess
Cloud Stalker

Hurricane Bertha

HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 AM AST TUE JUL 08 2008

...POWERFUL BERTHA MAINTAINING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.3 WEST OR ABOUT 675 MILES...
1085 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT
1035 MILES...1660 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY MAY OCCUR TODAY...
BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...21.4 N...53.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

Hurricane Bertha

Beautiful isn't she.

HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM AST MON JUL 07 2008

...BERTHA STRENGTHEN TO A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 115 MPH WINDS...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.1 WEST OR ABOUT 730 MILES...
1175 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT
1150 MILES...1855 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BERTHA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...20.1 N...52.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

cat in the hat