Tropical Storm ALEX Public Advisory
1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010
...LARGE TROPICAL STORM ALEX HEADING TOWARD BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...17.3N 86.1W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN
* THE ISLANDS OF ROATAN...GUANAJA...AND UTILA IN HONDURAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO THE BORDER OF
HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALEX WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF
BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
PENINSULA ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE ALEX MOVES INLAND TONIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EASTERN GUATEMALA...MUCH
OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING IN THE BAY
ISLANDS OF HONDURAS...AND THESE WINDS SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF
BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER
TODAY.
We should all pray that the trough of low pressure that is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday, is weak. It could very well pull Alex northwards through the oil slick region into the northern Gulf of Mexico coast.
Most models are saying that the trough will be weak enough that Alex will cross the Yucatan, emerge into the Gulf of Mexico, then slow down as the trough to its north weakens the steering currents in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. By Tuesday, the influence of the trough will wane, high pressure will build in, and Alex will resume a west-northwest, or possibly a due west or west-southwest motion, towards the Texas/Mexico border region. That is what Dr.Jeff Masters is saying. I just hope we get some moisture in the air so I can have me some fun watching the storm build then explode.
He He any who keeping my eye Alex watching 94L and always keeping my eyes to the sky!
Jess
Cloudstalker
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