week end weather

A low pressure area over Georgia and a weak surface trough extending southwest from the low will slowly settle southward into the northern Gulf Coast region on Friday, fueling the development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over much of northern Florida. Some storms could be strong. Higher moisture content over the area will allow the likelihood of heavy rainfall to accompany some of these storms. Such heavy rainfall could cause temporary flooding of urban and low-lying locations. Other threats include deadly cloud-to-ground lightning and brief gusty winds.
Over the peninsula and Keys, weak and ragged high pressure overhead will do little to suppress convection Friday afternoon. Light winds and sufficient low level moisture will still allow for Atlantic and Gulf sea breeze boundaries to develop and move inland, triggering isolated thunderstorms during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Expect cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, brief gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall to accompany these storms. In addition, there will be a chance of isolated waterspouts in the Keys. Activity will diminish after sunset, with only a few isolated showers or thunderstorms possible overnight along the coast and nearshore areas of South Florida and the Keys.



The aforementioned trough of low pressure is forecast to stall over northern Florida this weekend, keeping rain chances above average through Sunday. By Labor Day, rain chances should return to the scattered afternoon variety typical of August. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Monday in the peninsula and Keys. Although no widespread severe weather is expected, a few storms could be strong.

In the tropics, several areas of low pressure are located off the eastern U.S. coast. The most organized of these lows is centered east-southeast of the New Jersey coast. There is some potential for this system to develop further, but it is no threat to Florida since it is forecast to move northeast into the cooler waters of the North Atlantic. The remaining lows off the U.S. east coast are forecast to move away from the U.S. and not develop significantly, if at all.

An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is located about 300 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles, or about 1,900 miles southeast of the South Florida coast. This system has become better organized, and it could develop into a tropical depression during the next 24 hours as it continues toward the west at around 15 mph. A reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Friday afternoon.

In the far eastern Atlantic, an area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is located about 250 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Drier air currently surrounding this system will hamper any significant development through the next few days.


Atlantic SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
000 WONT41 KNHC 311310 DSAAT SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 910 AM AST FRI AUG 31 2007 SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS COULD BE DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO CONFIRM IF A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND ALL INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD BE READY TO TAKE QUICK ACTION...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABNT20 KNHC 310930 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 530 AM EDT FRI AUG 31 2007 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... A WELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER THIS MORNING. REGARDLESS... AS THE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND WINDS WITH GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE. INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING...AND THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS. REGARDLESS...IT COULD STRENGTHEN AS A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS MOSTLY DIMINISHED AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

With the trough pushing in Florida can expect NO tropical weather, Hoping on some good pulse storms to make my weekend intresting!
Have a safe and wonderful weekend....and remember keep your eyes to the sky!!
:>) Jess.....