Skywatch Friday

With all the rain we have had i have seen quite a few rainbows,i still havent found the pot of gold, but i havent stop looking ether.
Skywatch friday to join in with the world click on this LINK





Some where under the rainbow there is always a wacky weather chick with a camera.

Jess
Cloud Stalker

HURRICANE GUSTAV

We got a hurricane in the house!! GUSTAV A LITTLE STRONGER...NEARING THE SOUTH COAST OF HAITI...
And 2 more interest out there that look good for the ripening. I am gonna have to agree this 2008 storm season has been off the wall. Gustav looks like its gonna go major, once it hits those gulf waters its any one game. Will it be a Florida storm, i don't know.:AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...
125 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 265 MILES
...425 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK THIS HURRICANE SHOULD MOVE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN HAITI LATER TODAY AND NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
EASTERN CUBA ON WEDNESDAY.

Ridging is expected to develop over Florida helping to turn Gustav more westerly in the longer-term, but the strength of this ridging and timing of the next trough along the northern Gulf coast is all up in the air-"From Jeff Gammons Blog"
Where ever he lands its not gonna be good folks,not at all. I was hoping to some Fay chasing while she was here but sometimes it sucks being married is all I got to say on that subject. So for me this will be another arm chair chase. As long as i get a signal i am good to go.
Jess

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING EAST OF BARAHONA TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EAST OF BARAHONA TO SANTO
DOMINGO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST OR ABOUT 180
MILES...290 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL BE MOVING
NEAR OR OVER HAITI ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
GUSTAV COULD BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO MOVING OVER LAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 25
INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE INTENSE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

Posted by: JeffMasters, 4:12 PM EDT on August 25, 2008
Tropical Storm Gustav intensified rapidly from a mere disturbance to a strong tropical storm in just a few short hours. At 1:33 pm EDT, an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a surface pressure of 996 mb at 15.8N, 70.5W, at the center of a closed circulation. Top winds at the aircraft's flight level of 2200 feet were hurricane force, 74 mph. Top winds measured at the surface by the SFMR instrument were 60 mph, on the southeast side of the storm. Large regions of winds in excess of tropical storm force (39 mph) were measured on both the northwest and southeast sides of the storm. Visible satellite loops show a steadily increase in the intensity and areal coverage of Gustav's heavy thunderstorm activity. A cloud-free center (not a true eye) formed late this morning, and Gustav is now starting to build an eyewall of heavy thunderstorms around the cloud-free center. Gustav has an impressive spiral band to its north, and this band has now moved ashore over the southern Dominican Republic, as seen on Punta Cana radar. These rains have also spread to Puerto Rico, as seen on Puerto Rico radar. The Hurricane Hunters have left Gustav, and a new aircraft is scheduled to be in the storm by 2 am Tuesday.




The track forecast for Gustav
The models have come into better agreement on the future track of Gustav. Gustav is likely to continue northwest across the southwestern peninsula of Haiti, and is being drawn this direction by a trough of low pressure currently exiting the U.S. East Coast. By Wednesday, the trough is expected to move eastward, leaving Gustav in a region of weak steering currents. The storm will slow down, and is then expected to turn westward, or even slightly south of west, as a ridge of high pressure builds in, forcing Gustav to move parallel to Cuba. The outlier model is the NOGAPS, which takes Gustav northward through the Bahamas and parallel to the U.S. East Coast. For now, I am discounting this solution. The NOGAPS was also the outlier model during Fay, and consistently made the worst track forecasts among the major models. I expect Gustav to track over or just south of Cuba. As Gustav nears western Cuba on Friday, another trough of low pressure moving across the central U.S. may be strong enough to turn Gustav northward, into the Gulf of Mexico. This is the solution given by the GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF models, which foresee a Category 1 or 2 hurricane just west of Key West, Florida, on Saturday. The GFS, UKMET, and Canadian models disagree, and forecast that the new trough of low pressure will not be strong enough to turn Gustav to the north. Instead, these models predict that Gustav will continue west into the Yucatan Peninsula.

Which set of models do you trust? Both solutions are plausible. I plotted up the errors for some of the computer model forecasts made during Fay. While Fay was over Hispaniola and Cuba, the GFDL model made the best track forecasts, among the four main models used by NHC: GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, and UKMET. This makes me more inclined to trust the GFDL model's forecasts for Gustav, since Fay and Gustav are similar storms.

The intensity forecast for Gustav
As long as Gustav is over water, it will intensify. Gustav is currently under low wind shear (5 knots) . This shear is expected to remain in the low range (0-10 knots) through Tuesday morning, then increase to a moderate 15 knots by Tuesday afternoon, as Gustav makes its closest approach to the trough of low pressure to its north. Gustav is over the highest heat content waters in the Atlantic. Given these two factors, intensification to a strong Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds is possible before the storm makes landfall in Haiti. Expect the high mountains of Hispaniola to take a significant toll on Gustav. Recall in 2006 that Hurricane Ernesto hit the southwest tip of Haiti as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Haiti's mountains knocked Ernesto down to a tropical storm with 50 mph winds, which decreased further to 40 mph when the storm crossed over into Cuba. Expect at least a 25 mph decrease in Gustav's winds by Wednesday, after it encounters Haiti. Further weakening is likely if the storm passes close to or over Cuba. By Wednesday, wind shear is expected to fall to the low range (0-10 knots) again, as the trough of low pressure to its north moves off to the east. Once Gustav reaches central or western Cuba, it will be underneath an upper-level anticyclone. These upper atmosphere high pressure systems can greatly intensify a tropical storm, since the clockwise flow of air at the top of the storm acts to efficiently vent away air pulled aloft by the storm's heavy thunderstorms. With high oceanic heat content also present in the waters off western Cuba, the potential for rapid intensification exists should the center stay more than 50 miles from the Cuban coast.

Hurricane Season

I copyed this from a comment in Jeff Masters blog. It cracked me up so i thought i would share I think u will get a kick out of this.

Hurricane Season

We're about to enter the peak of the hurricane season. Any day now,
you're going to turn on the TV and see a weather person pointing to
some blob out in the Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico and making one of
two basic meteorological statements:

(1) There is no need to panic
(2) We could all be killed

Yes, hurricane season is an exciting time to be in Florida. If you're
new to the area, you're probably wondering what you need to do to
prepare for the possibility that we'll get hit by "the big one".
Based on our experiences, we recommend that you follow this simple
three-step hurricane preparedness plan:

Step 1. - Buy enough food and bottled water to last your family for
at least three days

Step 2 - Put these supplies into your car

Step 3 - Drive to Ohio and remain there until Halloween.
Unfortunately, statistics show that most people will not follow this
sensible plan. Most people will foolishly stay here in Florida.

We'll start with one of the most important hurricane preparedness items:

HOMEOWNERS' INSURANCE

If you own a home, you must have hurricane insurance. Fortunately,
this insurance is cheap and easy to get, as long as your home meets
two basic requirements:

(1) It is reasonably well-built, and

(2) It is located in Ohio

Unfortunately, if your home is located in Florida, or any other area
that might actually be hit by a hurricane, most insurance companies
would prefer not to sell you hurricane insurance, because then they
might be required to pay YOU money, and that is certainly not why
they got into the insurance business in the first place. So you'll
have to scrounge around for an insurance company, which will charge
you an annual premium roughly equal to the replacement value of your
house. At any moment, this company can drop you like used dental
floss.

EVACUATION ROUTE

If you live in a low-lying area, you should have an evacuation route
planned out. (To determine whether you live in a low-lying area, look
at your driver's license; if it says "Florida" you live in a low-lying area).

HURRICANE SUPPLIES

If you don't evacuate, you will need a mess of supplies. Do not buy
them now! Florida tradition requires that you wait until the last
possible minute, then go to the supermarket and get into vicious
fights with strangers over who gets the last can of SPAM.

In addition to food and water, you will need the following supplies:

23 flashlights. At least $167 worth of batteries that turn out, when
the power goes off, to be the wrong size for the flashlights.

Bleach. (No, I don't know what the bleach is for. NOBODY knows what the
bleach is for, but it's traditional, so GET some).

A 55 gallon drum of underarm deodorant.

A big knife that you can strap to your leg. (This will be useless in
a hurricane, but it looks cool).

A large quantity of raw chicken, to placate the alligators. (Ask
anybody who went through a hurricane; after the hurricane, there WILL
be irate alligators).

$35,000 in cash or diamonds so that, after the hurricane passes, you
can buy a generator from a man with no discernible teeth.

BE INFORMED

Of course these are just basic precautions. As the hurricane draws
near, it is vitally important that you keep abreast of the situation
by turning on your television and watching TV reporters in rain
slickers stand right next to the ocean and tell you over and over how
vitally important it is for everybody to stay away from the ocean.

Good luck, and remember: it's great living in Paradise.

TROPICAL STORM FAY

AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
ESTIMATED TO BE INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR LATITUDE 18.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...
WEST-NORTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT
335 MILES...540 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GENERAL
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND PASS NEAR OR OVER
EASTERN CUBA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SHIP OBERVATIONS AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURING MAINLY OVER
WATER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED WHILE THE CENTER OF FAY IS OVER HISPANIOLA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...18.6 N...70.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

This one is coming close to home, one can only hope. I know its a sick thing to say but i love these storms and the sound of the wind coming off them is totally amazing!
Plus I am off Tuesday and Wednesday depending on where it makes land fall i will be there with my camera,. I am very excited about this i hope my weather void diminishes.
Here is Fay's visible satellite loop link if you want to watch her. I work tomorrow till 3pm as soon as i get home I will post an update. Until then be good and if u cant be good,be good at it.
Jess
Cloud Stalker

A quick hello

To all those who stop by, just a reminder i do not have internet unless i get a strong signal. Plus my computer needs work bad right now it moves slower then windows 95. I post when i can but to view other blogs it just takes to long to load the page.
I am missing out on skywatch because of this. When my computer is back up to par i will be back to my usual posting. So hello to those who stop in for a visit.
Jess
Cloud Stalker

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD

000
WTNT35 KNHC 032348
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
700 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008

...EDOUARD MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS
MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST OR ABOUT 90
MILES...145 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
ABOUT 415 MILES...670 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 4 MPH...6 KM/HR...AND
A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...AND BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA OR
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND EDOUARD COULD BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ALONG THE THE LOUISIANA COAST WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6